453
FXUS64 KLUB 240803
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
303 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Light, but moist S-SW winds were commonplace early this morning on
the heels of a surface high entering the Hill Country. Most dewpoint
depressions across our southern two rows of counties were already
less than three degrees as of 2 AM with leaf wetness values of 100%
at various WTM stations from Anton south to Lamesa. As such, some
fog should emerge in these areas through daybreak and expand E-NE as
winds veer more westerly. The HRRR is handling this setup well thus
far and given the very shallow saturated layer it seems reasonable
for fog to erode not long after 9 AM.

The bigger picture today features an upper low digging south across
the northern Great Plains this morning to the Ozarks by sunset well
east of a longwave ridge spanning the Intermountain West.
Accompanying the upper low is a healthy mid and upper jet core along
with a weak cold front that should reach our Panhandle counties by
mid/late afternoon before clearing our southern zones after sunset.
Our forecast area will unfortunately fall under the RFQ/subsident
region of the upper jet which should serve to keep convective
chances low, but non-zero today. Kept 20 PoPs in our far northeast
counties later this afternoon where improved dewpoints will support
MLCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg during FROPA. Rather dry sub-cloud profiles
point to decent DCAPEs capable of mostly sub-severe wind gusts
before storms dwindle this evening.

High temps today should have little trouble soaring into the upper
80s and low 90s thanks to compressional warming ahead of the front
and light downslope winds. Temps were kept a bit cooler in those
areas that saw heavy rainfall last weekend. Other than a few passing
high clouds overnight, ample radiational cooling on dry and light
north winds will favor lows in the low to mid 50s for many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Water vapor imagery currently depicts an upper level trough over the
Upper Midwest region where it is expected to surge southward into the
southeastern CONUS through the week before becoming immobile through
the weekend. The current track portrayed by models continues to
shift the position of the trough further east than previous runs
which will likely lead to a warmer week than anticipated. Meanwhile
off to the west, an amplified upper level ridge is expected to
develop across western CONUS while slowly creeping eastward. This
upper level pattern will result in rather north to northerly flow
aloft. Thickness values will begin to slowly climb through the week
which in combination with clear skies will lead to the gradual warm-
up in temperatures back in the 80s. By Thursday, potential tropical
cyclone 9 is expected to to move onshore the AL/FL coastline. As it
stands, latest guidance pushes the system northward which would
result in the westward push back of the upper level trough as the
tropical system becomes absorbed into the flow. This could allow for
a few stray thunderstorms to develop this weekend across the eastern
Rolling Plains as disturbances in the flow aloft track down the
backside of the low. However confidence remains extremely low given
the uncertainty on how the system evolves along with the lack of
moisture expected across the region. As we head into the beginning
of next week the quiet weather is expected to continue as the upper
level trough finally exits the southeast and the upper level ridge
begins to expand back over portions of the Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Continued VFR with FROPA and light N winds impacting all sites
late this afternoon. A few caveats include a window for patchy
morning FG near LBB and also a few TS at CDS during FROPA. Both of
these threats are very conditional and will be revisited in later
TAFs.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93