234
FXUS64 KLUB 311133
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
633 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Relatively weak west-northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over
the region early this morning with a mature MCS over central TX and
scattered elevated showers over the TX Panhandle at 3 AM. There is
still poor consensus among models for the potential re-invigoration
of thunderstorms over our area early this morning. The
aforementioned scattered activity over the TX Panhandle has thus far
failed to maintain intensity as it shifts southward. However, water
vapor channel imagery highlights several southward-moving midlevel
waves which still have the potential to ignite additional elevated
convection as they intercept a modest low level theta-e ridge over
the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Given the uncertainty, will
maintain broad-brushed PoPs across most of the forecast area through
the early to mid morning hours.

Prospects for additional thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
appear to be more limited today compared to earlier this week.
Surface moisture will be plentiful throughout the day with dewpoints
generally progged to remain above 60F, but the combination of a
relatively stable airmass in addition to modest shortwave ridging
building aloft is expected to largely prevent storm development
locally through the daytime hours. That being said, convection is
still expected to develop over the New Mexico high terrain today,
and with weak westerlies in place aloft, this activity does have the
potential to shift into our western zones late this evening and
tonight. If this does occur, steep midlevel lapse rates will
maintain relatively impressive elevated instability, but overall
weak shear magnitudes should keep severe potential fairly limited.
Considerable uncertainty exists regarding how far east this activity
will progress tonight, and given a lack of model consensus have kept
PoPs relatively low tonight with highest storm chances confined to
areas along the TX/NM state line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Mostly zonal flow with weak ridging Saturday will give way to
westerly winds aloft. Southerly surface winds will bring low level
moisture and surface dewpoints in the 60s across the forecast area.
With upslope surface flow, temperatures will remain near or slightly
below normal in the lower to mid 80s. Convective temperatures are
still expected to be met by Saturday afternoon with storms fire
along the higher terrain across eastern New Mexico and moving
eastward through the evening. A shortwave disturbance in the flow
aloft should act to keep storms going through the night across the
South and Rolling Plains. Storm severity will likely decrease, but
the environment will still be capable of a few storms with isolated
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heading into Sunday, the dryline
will setup farther east across the South Plains. Southerly surface
winds ahead of the dryline will give way to increased low level
moisture and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Soundings indicate
convective temperatures will be breached during the afternoon hours
with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Models
indicate a shortwave disturbance in the flow aloft that will help to
drive thunderstorm development and intensification through the
afternoon and evening hours along and east of the I-27 corridor.
Instability parameters support a few strong to severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Early next week will feature very hot and dry conditions. Monday,
westerly flow will persist aloft with the return of downsloping
southwesterly surface winds as the dryline mixes eastward.
Temperatures will creep into the triple digits at a few locations
across the High Plains of Texas. By Tuesday, the next upper level
trough will deepen and dig into the Northern Plains. Lee
cyclogenesis will develop across the Texas Panhandle with very warm
downsloping winds giving way to widespread triple digit heat across
West Texas. A weak cold front will dive south across the area
Wednesday morning with a return to highs in the 90s. A weak ridge
will also build in aloft with several disturbances in the flow aloft
and a small chance for precipitation to return to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Intermittent periods of MVFR CIGs are expected at all TAF sites
through the mid-morning hours with VFR returning by midday.
Chances for convection are relatively low area-wide today, with
some TS potentially approaching LBB and PVW after 00z. However,
confidence in convective evolution this evening is still much too
low for specific TAF mention at this issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30