968
FXUS64 KLUB 201125
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Mid level ridging extends from New Mexico to the Ohio Valley early
this morning with the ridge axis lying over the forecast area with
little movement expected to it. However, low to mid level moisture
is high with progged soundings reflecting a nearly saturated profile
up to around 400 mb before drying out above that while the
temperature profile is moist adiabatic. Farther to our south T.S.
Alberto will come ashore on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville
and will move quickly inland with an extension of its trough and
moisture working northward through southwest Texas. Models continue
to show scattered showers and isolated thunder moving across mainly
the southwestern third to half of the forecast area late morning
through afternoon while lingering low to mid level moisture weakly
capped aloft potentially leading to additional scattered showers and
isolated thunder in a somewhat typical West Texas nocturnal and
tropical setup. Progged soundings show PWATs upwards of 1.67 inches
across the southwestern zones, but modest CAPE values of less than
500 J/kg suggest most of that precipitation potential will be
limited. Temperatures will be relatively cool again today due to low
to mid cloud cover and persistent moist southeasterly low level
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will end across the far
southwestern Panhandle Friday morning. Some minimal PoPs have
been retained in this same area for Sunday evening near a weak
upper wave, however hot and dry conditions are expected to prevail
across much of the area as a ridge strengthens to the west. High
temperatures will gradually increase from the low 90s on Saturday
to near 100 by early next week. NBM PoPs rise to chances of
showers and storms next Wednesday and Thursday. Although they have
been unchanged in the current forecast given the inherent
uncertainty this far out, they may be a bit optimistic as upper
heights would indicate a strongly capped environment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

An upper level disturbance of tropical origin will bring mid cloud
to the area through the TAF period, some areas of stratus with
MVFR ceilings (favored at KLBB over the other two sites), and some
scattered showers and the outside chance of a TS (again, favored
at KLBB). Will keep precip mention out at this time but will
insert an MVFR ceiling at KLBB.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07