353
FXUS64 KLUB 171727
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Better chances for isolated thunderstorms will exist this afternoon
but coverage is expected to be very limited. Overall, forcing for
ascent will be fairly weak with a strong cap to erode before
convection will be able to initiate. Several weak short waves were
noted in the southwest flow aloft across Arizona and New Mexico
early this morning. Furthermore, a weak jet streak on the order of
60kt was observed along the Arizona/New Mexico border. This jet
streak will continue to move east and slide more to the south by
late this afternoon. Models do agree we will see some forcing from
this feature near the Texas/New Mexico state line into the Permian
Basin. Surface cyclogenesis will develop in northeastern Colorado in
response to a strong short wave trough moving across the
Intermountain West. A dryline will mix eastward through the day but
will not likely make it far beyond the Texas/New Mexico state line
given the position of the surface low. Low level convergence will
increase along the dryline supplementing the weak larger scale lift
from the upper jet/short wave trough.

Convective initiation will be dependent on whether a cap will weaken
enough to allow it. A notable elevated mixed layer was evident in
model soundings as well as the KAMA raob (no raob was available from
KMAF). Temperatures at 700mb will be roughly around +16 to +17C
today in close vicinity to the dryline. Deep boundary layer mixing
will occur today with very warm temperatures expected. Model
convective temperatures are in the mid-90s which is what we have
forecast for this afternoon. Most models generally have CIN eroding
to less than -20 very late this afternoon, close to 23 to 00Z. An
axis of high theta-e air will exist on the caprock and when combined
with the steep mid-level lapse rates, yields between 2000 and 3000
J/kg of mixed layer instability. Deep layer shear will be increasing
through the day as the aforementioned upper level jet streak
approaches the area. Therefore, isolated storms will be possible
late this afternoon with some chance of storm organization into
supercellular structures. A dry sub-cloud layer will support a
severe wind threat with a lesser threat for large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Generally quiet conditions will be in store for Tuesday. Although it
will still be muggy with dewpoints in the mid 60s during the day,
there are no notable forcing parameters and thus no mentionable PoPs
in the current forecast. A cold front will move through the area on
Wednesday. Resultant surface winds switching to east-southeasterly
will bring a relief from the recent warmer temperatures, with highs
only expected to reach the mid 80s. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon/evening. Forecast
confidence significantly declines thereafter as a Gulf low
approaches the mainland. There is a clear difference between the
North American and foreign deterministic model solutions. In general
the GFS/NAM/GEM bring widespread moderate-to-heavy precipitation
farther north and faster than the ECMWF/UKMET. NBM is still trying
to get a handle on all this with the Grand Ensemble currently giving
about a 20-30% chance of greater than 0.25" of rain across the CWA.
If the surface low remains closed, this would bring a higher
likelihood for a more southern track of the heaviest rain. Stay
tuned for updates.

What is slightly more certain are much cooler temperatures Thursday
and Friday. As expected the farther south models are warmer, however
even if the heaviest (or any) rain does not make it very far north,
there should be widespread cloud cover over the CWA and highs may
struggle to get out of the 70s. No matter where it sets up, the
fire hose of Gulf moisture looks to weaken into Friday. Nothing
exciting at this time jumps out with the upper level flow next
weekend, which would mean generally quiet weather and temperatures
rebounding to near normal, however given the aforementioned model
disparities, things could certainly chance between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon and
evening. Breezy winds should continue throughout the period, with
the occasional 30kt wind gust possible at all terminals. This
evening, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms, some
potentially severe, to develop along the TX/NM state line and move
toward PVW and LBB into the overnight hours. However, confidence
is too low to include a mention in the TAF at this time. Towards
sunrise, stratus should move into the CWA from the southeast,
producing MVFR conditions at all terminals through mid-morning
Tuesday.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...DF