Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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453 FXUS64 KLUB 240803 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 303 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Light, but moist S-SW winds were commonplace early this morning on the heels of a surface high entering the Hill Country. Most dewpoint depressions across our southern two rows of counties were already less than three degrees as of 2 AM with leaf wetness values of 100% at various WTM stations from Anton south to Lamesa. As such, some fog should emerge in these areas through daybreak and expand E-NE as winds veer more westerly. The HRRR is handling this setup well thus far and given the very shallow saturated layer it seems reasonable for fog to erode not long after 9 AM. The bigger picture today features an upper low digging south across the northern Great Plains this morning to the Ozarks by sunset well east of a longwave ridge spanning the Intermountain West. Accompanying the upper low is a healthy mid and upper jet core along with a weak cold front that should reach our Panhandle counties by mid/late afternoon before clearing our southern zones after sunset. Our forecast area will unfortunately fall under the RFQ/subsident region of the upper jet which should serve to keep convective chances low, but non-zero today. Kept 20 PoPs in our far northeast counties later this afternoon where improved dewpoints will support MLCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg during FROPA. Rather dry sub-cloud profiles point to decent DCAPEs capable of mostly sub-severe wind gusts before storms dwindle this evening. High temps today should have little trouble soaring into the upper 80s and low 90s thanks to compressional warming ahead of the front and light downslope winds. Temps were kept a bit cooler in those areas that saw heavy rainfall last weekend. Other than a few passing high clouds overnight, ample radiational cooling on dry and light north winds will favor lows in the low to mid 50s for many areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Water vapor imagery currently depicts an upper level trough over the Upper Midwest region where it is expected to surge southward into the southeastern CONUS through the week before becoming immobile through the weekend. The current track portrayed by models continues to shift the position of the trough further east than previous runs which will likely lead to a warmer week than anticipated. Meanwhile off to the west, an amplified upper level ridge is expected to develop across western CONUS while slowly creeping eastward. This upper level pattern will result in rather north to northerly flow aloft. Thickness values will begin to slowly climb through the week which in combination with clear skies will lead to the gradual warm- up in temperatures back in the 80s. By Thursday, potential tropical cyclone 9 is expected to to move onshore the AL/FL coastline. As it stands, latest guidance pushes the system northward which would result in the westward push back of the upper level trough as the tropical system becomes absorbed into the flow. This could allow for a few stray thunderstorms to develop this weekend across the eastern Rolling Plains as disturbances in the flow aloft track down the backside of the low. However confidence remains extremely low given the uncertainty on how the system evolves along with the lack of moisture expected across the region. As we head into the beginning of next week the quiet weather is expected to continue as the upper level trough finally exits the southeast and the upper level ridge begins to expand back over portions of the Panhandle. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Continued VFR with FROPA and light N winds impacting all sites late this afternoon. A few caveats include a window for patchy morning FG near LBB and also a few TS at CDS during FROPA. Both of these threats are very conditional and will be revisited in later TAFs. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...93