Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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258 FXUS64 KLUB 230811 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 311 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Pesky stratus was holding tight over all but the far southwest TX Panhandle as of 1 AM. This layer is quite thin and confined to the frontal inversion which is on track to dry out considerably toward sunrise ahead of surface high pressure arriving from western KS. One tricky element today is high temps in those areas that saw soaking rain this weekend. Even with full insolation this afternoon, the NBM looks too mild over most of the South Plains where rainfall was not much to brag about, so highs elsewhere were trimmed a few degrees. Surface ridging peels east tonight underneath cyclonic W-NW flow. This will promote a shallow layer of moist southerly winds with some low probs for fog development across our southern row of counties toward daybreak per the SREF and HREF. Overall this fog threat looks too marginal for mention in the grids at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An upper level trough is expected to dive southward through the northern and central Plains beginning Tuesday while upper level ridging amplifies to our west. This will lead to relatively northerly flow aloft through most of the week as the upper level trough becomes nearly stationary over the ArkLaTex region. We begin to warm up Tuesday as wash out from the weekend front that brought us the nice taste of Fall Sunday and Monday. Lee surface troughing in southeastern CO is expected to develop by early Tuesday morning which will influence southwest surface winds. These southwest winds will aid in the warm up of temperatures back into the 80s across the FA. As the upper level trough and associated front begin to surge southward a few thunderstorms may begin to develop along the boundary and track southward into portions of the far southeastern TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains Tuesday afternoon. However, latest model runs continue to push the upper level trough and associated lift and moisture further east into central OK. MOS guidance has also picked up on this drier solution and therefore have decided to dial back PoP chances for most of Tuesday. Mentionable PoPs remain in tact for the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern TXPH where the best moisture and lift will likely reside. The front is expected to make its way through the FA by Tuesday evening, with post frontal northerly winds prevailing. This will lead to cooler temperatures Wednesday in the 70s to low-end 80s. The pattern becomes a bit uncertain come Thursday as a tropical system moves onshore the AL/FL coastline and interacts with the rather stationary upper level low. Depending on how this evolves, we could see the upper level low shift back to the west as the tropical system moves northward and eventually absorbed into the flow aloft. If this scenario where to pan out, the eastern portions of the FA could see some remnant moisture wrap around the backside of the low which could increased precipitation chances through the weekend. However, it is way too soon to know how this upper level pattern will evolve. Confidence does remain in tact for this system to keep northerly flow aloft and cooler temperatures in the 70s and low 80s in place through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 MVFR ceilings remain on track to erode from N-S toward daybreak ahead of SKC conditions. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...93