495
FXUS64 KLZK 202312 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
612 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The upper level ridge over the area will be weakening during the
short term period, as a closed low over southern CA lifts and moves
off to the northeast toward the upper midwest.

At the surface, a cold front will drop down and stall near the
corner of NW Arkansas over the weekend. The upper flow will be
nearly parallel to the front, so it should not make it down into the
forecast area, at least in the short term.

A few batches of showers and thunderstorms will occur over northern
AR tonight, tomorrow, and again on Sunday. If the storms over
northern AR tomorrow afternoon become a little more organized, it`s
not out of the question that a few storms could make it into central
AR. The likelihood of that, however, is low at the moment.

Temperatures tomorrow will be about the same as today, and a few
degrees lower on Sunday. We have a heat advisory in effect for
central AR westward up the River Valley today, and the dewpoints
look to be a bit lower tomorrow...so I will not be issuing any
advisories with this package.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of
the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its
way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge
southward. At the sfc, a cold front will make its way across the
state from Mon-Tue. This front will usher in cooler temperatures and
scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the week. Highs on
Monday could be quite interesting as the front bisects the area from
SW to NE, leading to 70s F across NW AR while southeast portions of
the state climb into the 90s F.

Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level
trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS
Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff just north
of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and west. At the
sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW toward the
state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool temperatures and
some occasional rain chances/periods of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Some convection will remain possible over the next couple
hrs...mainly for NRN/NERN sections...then coverage should
decrease. Expect dominant VFR conditions through this TAF period.
Some spotty convection may again be possible on Sat
afternoon...with best chances across NRN AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  93  69  92 /  10  20   0  20
Camden AR         70  96  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       70  92  69  89 /  20  30  10  30
Hot Springs AR    72  97  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  74  96  73  95 /   0  10   0   0
Monticello AR     70  96  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  97  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  69  92  69  90 /  30  40  10  30
Newport AR        70  92  69  91 /  10  10   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     71  95  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   71  96  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
Searcy AR         70  94  69  93 /  10  10   0  10
Stuttgart AR      71  94  71  93 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-044-
121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62