Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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669 FXUS64 KLZK 210522 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 H500 ridging to the east of the area will expand west over the state Fri-Sat. This will provide dry conditions along with increasing temperatures the next couple of days. Td values will largely remain below 70 F which will limit heat indices to below heat advisory criteria. Additionally, NWS HeatRisk values are expected to mainly be in the 1-2 range through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/MONDAY: In the upper lvls, an elongated region of high pressure extending from over the Southwestern region of the CONUS into over the Mid- South region of the CONUS will be positioned throughout the beginning of the long-term forecast period. At the sfc, high pressure will meander across the region with predominately southwesterly winds keeping conditions dry and hot. In response, expect the hottest temperatures of the year across the Natural State with a few locations across the state making a run at and reaching the triple-digit mark. Heat index values will be likely in the 100s for a decent portion of the state on Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday. A few locations may see heat index values in the mid to upper 100s in Heat Advisory criteria. It will be a must during the weekend the utilize heat safety practices such as taking frequent breaks out of the direct exposure of the heat along with staying hydrating whether you are recreating or working. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The upper lvl ridge becomes fixated over the Desert Southwest region of the CONUS with northwesterly flow transitioning over Arkansas and a shortwave that will approach the state on Wednesday. At the sfc, a frontal boundary will approach the state from the north in cohesion with high pressure positioned across the Mid- Atlantic states ushering in gulf moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will result in increased POP chances from mid to late next week, especially as the frontal boundary approaches the state on Wednesday into Thursday. In response, expect above normal temperatures to continue, especially in the middle of the week before the approaching frontal boundary later in the week may drop temperatures by a few degrees, but significant cooling is not expected. POPs will increase over this period as an approaching frontal boundary will present the opportunity of rain and isolated thunderstorms with gulf moisture in place before the FROPA on Thursday. Later next week does look to offer us a slight and brief reprieve from the hot and dry conditions that will greet us into the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 High pressure continues to build over the area from the east. The latest KLZK sounding indicates dry air aloft. Hot and dry conditions will continue with VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 93 71 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 95 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 92 69 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 92 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 94 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 94 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 69 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 94 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 94 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 74 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...51