975
FXUS64 KLZK 172249 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
549 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Eroding Rex block/weakening ridge over the northeast United
States has allowed the remnants of Francine to finally exit the
area to the east. There has been more sunshine across much of
northern/eastern/central Arkansas this afternoon, with clouds
hanging on farther south/west. This is along/north of a boundary
stalled along the Gulf Coast.

At the surface, weak high pressure and a clearing sky/light
wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain will yield
patches of dense fog later tonight into Wednesday morning. A Dense
Fog Advisory may be required depending on the extent of the fog.

Moving ahead, the Gulf Coast boundary will wash out, and large
scale troughing from the northern Plains into the western states
will result in ridging over the central/southern Plains. The ridge
will build slowly to the east, and this will bring us warmer
temperatures, especially on Thursday. For the most part, above
average readings are expected. There is also no rain in the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not a lot of changes from the thinking yesterday at this time. The
upper ridge building up over the central US during the short term
will extend thru Friday and Saturday, followed by some changes later
in the weekend.

A closed upper low will move across MO and lift up toward the Great
Lakes region, impacting the northern portions of the forecast area a
bit, before a more broad trof takes its place across the central
sections of the country late in the period.

At the surface a cold front will approach NW AR and will stall out,
and will eventually wash out into the NW portion of the forecast
area on Tuesday.

All of this will bring some chances for precip across primarily the
northern reaches of the forecast area from Sunday onwards, although
there will be some chances all the way down into the western and
central portions of the state. It is not inconceivable that an
organized cluster of storms during this period could form over the
northern or northwestern reaches of the area and build or
propagate further southward into the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The isolated SHRA across SRN sections late this afternoon should
dissipate with the loss of solar heating. Expect dominant VFR
conditions through the TAF period. However...some patchy fog may
again be seen overnight into Wed morning...but shouldn`t be as
as widespread as Tue morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  85  61  88 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         65  89  65  91 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       60  85  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  90  65  93 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  65  89  66  91 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     65  89  65  90 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      62  89  63  93 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  85  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        59  84  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     63  88  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   64  88  64  92 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         61  86  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      61  86  63  87 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...62