891
FXUS64 KLZK 160522
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

To begin the period, light showers are expected to continue through
the afternoon and evening hours before heavier rain become possible
overnight through Monday. This rain is from the remnants of what
was Francine that continues to meander around the Mississippi
Valley due to a weak steering pattern aloft. Eventually, the
remnants push out of the area as high pressure builds back into
the state Tuesday...this will bring calm and drier conditions to
end the period.

The heaviest of the rain is expected across portions of central and
eastern Arkansas where one to two inches of rain is expected through
Monday night. With that said, areas across eastern Arkansas will see
the best chance for locally higher amounts.

Showers and cloud cover has kept temperatures quite comfortable
across much of the state today and will do so again tomorrow. Highs
are currently expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday
before rising into the 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

No significant chances to mention at this time regarding the long
term fcst... Long term guidance continues to advertise drier and
generally warming condns acrs the FA, thru much of this comg week.
Upper flow is progged to remain weak over the Cntrl US, w/ compact
H500 ridging building over the Srn Cntrl US early in the PD, as more
prominent height falls and troughing occurs over the Wrn US, and a
warm-core tropical low moves inland over the Ern Seaboard. Under
weaker upper flow and modest ridging, the local wx pattern should
remain benign thru at least the end of this week.

At the sfc, the FA wl remain split b/w the influence of broad
Midwest sfc high pressure, and lee sfc cyclonic flow over the Cntrl
and Srn Great Plains. W/ this sfc pres gradient in place, winds wl
lkly tend to favor Erly to S/Erly components everyday, and thus,
support some modest low-level WAA, though more N/Erly winds acrs
N/Ern AR wl still support cooler (generally near-normal) temps
relative to the remainder of the FA. Elsewhere, temps will trend
towards above-normal readings in the upper 80s to low 90s thru the
end of the week, before some higher Chc PoPs become mentionable
again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Showers continue to rotate into east Arkansas and low ceilings will
continue over the state tonight. Additional showers will continue
through the night and into Monday. Heavier rain is anticipated late
tonight into Monday. Rain chances will be highest in central and
east sections. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  86  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         65  85  64  88 /  10  10   0   0
Harrison AR       61  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    66  87  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  67  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     67  86  65  88 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  62  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        63  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  85  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   64  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      65  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...56