296
FXUS64 KLZK 151831
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
131 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

To begin the period, light showers are expected to continue through
the afternoon and evening hours before heavier rain become possible
overnight through Monday. This rain is from the remnants of what
was Francine that continues to meander around the Mississippi
Valley due to a weak steering pattern aloft. Eventually, the
remnants push out of the area as high pressure builds back into
the state Tuesday...this will bring calm and drier conditions to
end the period.

The heaviest of the rain is expected across portions of central and
eastern Arkansas where one to two inches of rain is expected through
Monday night. With that said, areas across eastern Arkansas will see
the best chance for locally higher amounts.

Showers and cloud cover has kept temperatures quite comfortable
across much of the state today and will do so again tomorrow. Highs
are currently expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday
before rising into the 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

No significant chances to mention at this time regarding the long
term fcst... Long term guidance continues to advertise drier and
generally warming condns acrs the FA, thru much of this comg week.
Upper flow is progged to remain weak over the Cntrl US, w/ compact
H500 ridging building over the Srn Cntrl US early in the PD, as more
prominent height falls and troughing occurs over the Wrn US, and a
warm-core tropical low moves inland over the Ern Seaboard. Under
weaker upper flow and modest ridging, the local wx pattern should
remain benign thru at least the end of this week.

At the sfc, the FA wl remain split b/w the influence of broad
Midwest sfc high pressure, and lee sfc cyclonic flow over the Cntrl
and Srn Great Plains. W/ this sfc pres gradient in place, winds wl
lkly tend to favor Erly to S/Erly components everyday, and thus,
support some modest low-level WAA, though more N/Erly winds acrs
N/Ern AR wl still support cooler (generally near-normal) temps
relative to the remainder of the FA. Elsewhere, temps will trend
towards above-normal readings in the upper 80s to low 90s thru the
end of the week, before some higher Chc PoPs become mentionable
again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The remnants of what was Francine continues to impact the area.
Light SHRA will continue through the afternoon hours with heavier
rain possible overnight and into tomorrow. All terminal sites can
expect some impacts in VIS and CIGs with MVFR/IFR conditions
prevailing. This is expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  79  63  86 /  70  60   0   0
Camden AR         68  80  65  85 /  20  60  10  10
Harrison AR       64  76  61  83 /  30  50   0   0
Hot Springs AR    67  78  66  87 /  30  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  69  79  67  87 /  60  60   0   0
Monticello AR     69  80  67  86 /  50  70  10  10
Mount Ida AR      65  78  63  86 /  20  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  65  78  62  85 /  50  50   0   0
Newport AR        68  79  63  83 /  70  50   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  78  65  85 /  60  70  10   0
Russellville AR   67  78  64  86 /  30  40   0   0
Searcy AR         67  79  64  86 /  80  70   0   0
Stuttgart AR      69  78  65  85 /  80  70   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...73