526
FXUS64 KLZK 201102
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:

The upper lvl ridge remains positioned over Arkansas while an upper
lvl trof digs across the Western region of the CONUS. A SWT within
the northern periphery of the upper lvl ridge approaches the state.
At the sfc, a cold front will be moving through central Missouri and
stall becoming a stationary front across southern Missouri before it
can proceed into Arkansas. Despite this, the frontal boundary will
be in close enough proximity to the Arkansas/Missouri border that a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop across far
northern Arkansas later Friday evening into Friday night; however
POPs remain low overall and any shower or thunderstorm that does
manage to form would not amount to much in terms of QPF or total
rainfall.

The main weather story during the day on Friday will be the intense
heat and dangerous heat index values as the upper lvl ridge
continues to foster above average temperatures across the CWA and
state that will be 10+ degrees above average on Friday compared to
climatological normals for this time of the year. A Heat Advisory
has been issued for the Little Rock metro and locations westward
along the I-40 corridor extending into the Arkansas River Valley
where heat index values are expected to exceed 105 degrees.

High temperatures across the state will peak in the upper 80s to
upper 90s statewide.

Heat safety should be practiced statewide on Friday whether if you
are in the Heat Advisory or not as the combination of above average
temperatures this late into September will set the stage for an
increase of heat stress on the body as it has been quite some time
since we have had to worry about intense heat.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT:

An upper lvl closed low and attendant trof will be over the Four
Corners region of the CONUS in unison with the upper lvl ridge over
Arkansas that will begin becoming less amplified and more zonal. At
the sfc, a frontal boundary stalled just outside the state will
again remain in close enough proximity to coerce isolated shower and
thunderstorm development across the northern half and parts of west-
central Arkansas on Saturday. POPs will not be excessive, but any
location that does manage to experience an isolated shower or
thunderstorm could see some decent rainfall.

Saturday temperatures are again expected to be in the vicinity of 10
degrees above average, a few locations that do experience rainfall
may manage to dodge the intense heat. Saturday temperatures at the
moment appear to be slightly cooler (by a few degrees) than
temperatures on Friday, but it will still be rather hot for this
time of the year. The intense heat looks to subside looking ahead to
the long-term forecast period as a cold front approaching the area
will move into the state on Sunday into Monday providing some
relief for next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The long term PD looks to start w/ moderately perturbed H500 flow
acrs the Cntrl US. The shortwave ridge that has been lingering over
the Srn Cntrl US should begin to weaken as a longwave, largely
positively titled trof overspreads the Cntrl to Srn Great Plains on
Sun. At the sfc, developing cyclonic sfc flow is progged to extend
fm Nrn TX, N/Ewrds acrs AR to the lower OH River Valley. A cdfrnt
and asctd large band of precip along the frnt, wl be moving thru the
Plains, and approaching N/Wrn AR on Sun, though relief is not
expected to be seen by many in the region, w/ only N/Wrn AR possibly
seeing some lower Chc PoPs and slightly cooler temps Sun aftn to
evng. The remainder of the FA wl see an anomalously warm first day
of Astronomical Fall, w/ temps 8-10F warmer than normal, e.g. highs
in the low to mid 90s.

Heading into the new work week, the aforementioned cdfrnt is expected
to drift S/Ewrd, washing out over Cntrl AR on Mon. Mean S/Wrly H500
flow wl persist for at least a few days into the new week, w/ a few
shortwave trofs set to maneuver thru antecedent longwave troughing.
As these features eject acrs the FA Mon thru Wed atop a stalled sfc
frnt, daily Chc PoPs wl be noted acrs at least the N/Wrn half of the
state Mon to Tues, and lower Chc PoPs bcmg more prevalent acrs much
of the state on Wed. Cooler to more seasonal temps wl be seen by
much of the state beginning Tues and thru the end of the week as
Nrly sfc winds overspread the state, w/ progressively cooler temps
noted every day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A few isolated areas of patchy fog this morning may briefly degrade
flight category to as low as IFR. However, most terminals will
remain in VFR flight category this morning as the fog is not nearly
as widespread as past mornings. All sites will see VSBY return to
VFR flight category by late Friday morning. The northern terminals
of KHRO and KBPK may see a few showers or thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into Friday evening that could lower VSBY to MVFR. All
terminals will return to VFR flight category later Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  71  90  71 /  10  10  30  10
Camden AR         95  71  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
Harrison AR       93  72  90  70 /  20  20  50  20
Hot Springs AR    97  73  96  72 /   0  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  96  74  95  74 /   0  10  10   0
Monticello AR     94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      97  71  96  69 /   0  10  20   0
Mountain Home AR  93  71  90  70 /  20  20  40  20
Newport AR        90  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     94  72  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
Russellville AR   96  73  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
Searcy AR         93  71  91  70 /  10  10  20   0
Stuttgart AR      93  73  93  71 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ031-032-039-044-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74