506
FXUS64 KLZK 171921
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
221 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Light to moderate rain continues over primarily the eastern
reaches of the CWA with scattered convection starting to become a
little more widespread elsewhere.

Area is currently between upper level ridging sitting over the SE
CONUS and upper troughing moving into the Pacific NW. Mid level vort
max riding along the western periphery of the SE ridge helping to
generate some of heavier precipitation over the east with this
feature continuing to move off tho the N/NE this evening.

Precipitation in general is expected to decrease early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Precipitation coverage will be
spotty in nature with amounts generally light except in and near the
stronger convection.

Moisture will continue to feed into the region with diurnally driven
convection expected once again Tuesday afternoon. Aforementioned
upper ridge will begin to retrograde on Wednesday with convection
much more suppressed as the ridge returns.

Much like the past few days, highs are expected to be in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Humidity will make heat index values feel slightly
higher. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

H500 ridging to the east of the area will build west toward the
Southern Plains. This will provide a period of above normal
temperatures and no rain to the state. Td values don`t look too out
of hand, limiting overall heat index values through Saturday.

Toward the weekend, a strong storm system will track from the
central Plains to the upper Midwest. The system will try to drag a
cold front toward Arkansas, but the front will have difficulty
penetrating through the ridge. Even so, moisture will increase a bit
ahead of the front, and this may result in isolated afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms next weekend. Heat index values may approach
or exceed 105 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening over
mainly the eastern and central terminals and are expected to wane
shortly after sunset. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
except in and near convection where brief MVFR conditions will be
possible. Winds are expected to remain out of the south to
southeast and may be gusty in and around convection but otherwise
remain around 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  86  70  87 /  20  20   0  10
Camden AR         71  86  70  88 /  30  20   0  10
Harrison AR       70  86  67  84 /  10  20   0  10
Hot Springs AR    71  87  70  87 /  20  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  75  87  73  90 /  20  20   0  10
Monticello AR     72  87  72  90 /  30  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      70  87  68  85 /  20  30   0  10
Mountain Home AR  71  86  69  85 /  10  30   0  10
Newport AR        73  87  72  88 /  20  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  87  71  89 /  30  20   0   0
Russellville AR   72  88  71  87 /  10  30   0  10
Searcy AR         72  87  71  90 /  20  20   0  10
Stuttgart AR      73  86  73  88 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...56