662
FXUS64 KLZK 180503
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Eroding Rex block/weakening ridge over the northeast United
States has allowed the remnants of Francine to finally exit the
area to the east. There has been more sunshine across much of
northern/eastern/central Arkansas this afternoon, with clouds
hanging on farther south/west. This is along/north of a boundary
stalled along the Gulf Coast.

At the surface, weak high pressure and a clearing sky/light
wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain will yield
patches of dense fog later tonight into Wednesday morning. A Dense
Fog Advisory may be required depending on the extent of the fog.

Moving ahead, the Gulf Coast boundary will wash out, and large
scale troughing from the northern Plains into the western states
will result in ridging over the central/southern Plains. The ridge
will build slowly to the east, and this will bring us warmer
temperatures, especially on Thursday. For the most part, above
average readings are expected. There is also no rain in the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not a lot of changes from the thinking yesterday at this time. The
upper ridge building up over the central US during the short term
will extend thru Friday and Saturday, followed by some changes later
in the weekend.

A closed upper low will move across MO and lift up toward the Great
Lakes region, impacting the northern portions of the forecast area a
bit, before a more broad trof takes its place across the central
sections of the country late in the period.

At the surface a cold front will approach NW AR and will stall out,
and will eventually wash out into the NW portion of the forecast
area on Tuesday.

All of this will bring some chances for precip across primarily the
northern reaches of the forecast area from Sunday onwards, although
there will be some chances all the way down into the western and
central portions of the state. It is not inconceivable that an
organized cluster of storms during this period could form over the
northern or northwestern reaches of the area and build or
propagate further southward into the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Latest observations are showing patchy fog already beginning to
impact western and southern terminals across the state as of 12 AM
CDT Wednesday, thus dropping flight category to MVFR with isolated
moments of IFR in respect to VSBY. The trend of VSBY lowering
throughout the early morning hours of Wednesday will continue
dropping flight category at western and southern sites to as low as
IFR flight category. The northern and central terminals may see some
patchy fog resulting a decline to MVFR flight category. However,
flight category at all terminals will return to VFR by later
Wednesday morning as the fog dissipates and remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         89  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       85  62  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    90  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  89  66  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     89  65  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      89  63  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  85  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        84  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     88  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   88  64  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         86  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      86  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...74