165
FXUS64 KLZK 150835
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
335 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to meander
around the region through the period keeping precipitation chances
in the forecast before ending Monday evening, at the earliest.

The latest surface and satellite information show the center of
circulation remains somewhere over northern Mississippi, in roughly
the same place it was 24 hours ago. System remains cut off from the
prevailing upper flow and is forecast by guidance to slowly sink to
the south through Monday night.

Guidance remains consistent in higher precipitation chances today
and into Monday versus what was seen on Saturday. Tropical moisture
surges into the region on northeast winds, rotates around the
remnant low, and produces widespread showers over mainly the eastern
half of the state with what looks to be a fairly sharp POP gradient
westward.

Rainfall totals could approach an inch over parts of eastern
Arkansas through Monday with lesser amounts further west. Clouds
will persist over the east with decreasing amounts over central and
especially western sections. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s
over the east to the mid 80s over the west both Sunday and Monday.

Overall conditions will begin to dry out Monday night into Tuesday
as the remnant low finally sinks to the south and upper ridging
begins to build into central plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Mid-level ridging will build across the south-central to Midwest
states through much of the week. Dry conditions with near-average to
above-average temperatures are forecast, with highs in the 80s to
lower 90s and lows temps in the 60s. By next weekend, long-term
models return slight rain chances to the forecast area, mainly
across western portions of the state, as an upper trough sweeps
across the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low clouds will continue over the state tonight. An increase in
moisture and instability associated with the remnants of Francine
will bring chances of showers to the area throughout the day Sunday.
Rain chances will increase in the afternoon and evening and will
be highest in the east. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  66  81  62 /  90  60  30   0
Camden AR         83  68  80  64 /  40  20  50   0
Harrison AR       78  64  79  60 /  30  20  30   0
Hot Springs AR    82  67  81  65 /  40  30  40   0
Little Rock   AR  80  70  81  67 /  70  50  40   0
Monticello AR     82  70  80  66 /  70  40  40   0
Mount Ida AR      82  65  81  63 /  30  20  40   0
Mountain Home AR  76  65  80  62 /  50  30  30   0
Newport AR        76  67  81  63 /  80  60  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     80  68  79  64 /  70  60  40   0
Russellville AR   80  67  80  64 /  40  30  30   0
Searcy AR         77  67  81  64 /  80  60  50   0
Stuttgart AR      78  69  80  65 /  80  70  50   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...56