112
FXUS64 KLZK 210723
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
223 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT:

An upper lvl trof over the Western CONUS approaches the Four Corners
region of the CONUS. The upper lvl ridge remains positioned over
Arkansas begins a process of becoming less amplified and more zonal
with the approaching trof, within the northern periphery of the
upper lvl ridge will be several shortwaves that will pass through
the flow pattern presenting the opportunity for unsettled weather
across the northern half of Arkansas. At the sfc, a low pressure
center will be deepening across the Central Plains region of the
CONUS with an associated cold front extending southwestward into
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. In tandem, a warm front will be
lifting across the Mid-West region of the CONUS along with a sfc
area of high pressure across the Deep South region of the CONUS
which given CW flow around the sfc high pressure will allow
moisture to be advected into the region via the Gulf of Mexico
ahead of the approaching front.

Expect another day of intense temperatures that will above average
between 5 and 10 degrees. The northern half of Arkansas will see
isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

Latest short-range model guidance does show an environment with high
CAPE (2,500 to 3,000 J/kg) and low shear with parcels that will have
a convective temperature environment in the low 90s to coerce
development. The environment will also have PWAT values of 1.8 to 2
inches which is extremely high for this tine of the year. DCAPE
values are forecast to be between 900-1,200 J/kg in this region as
well with a TEI of 30C or greater which will promote the development
of possible large hail and gusty winds in any cell that is able to
maintain itself during the maximum daytime heating.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT:

The upper lvl trof approaches the Southern Plains region of the
CONUS with the upper lvl ridge remaining over Arkansas, but becoming
zonal. Nonetheless, temperatures will remain in the avenue of 5 to
10 degrees above normal on Sunday as a cold front will begin to
approach the state from the northwest, but not begin the process of
moving through the majority of the state until Monday.

Expect shower and isolated thunderstorms along the frontal boundary
on Sunday remaining primarily across northern and northwestern
Arkansas.

Widespread POP chances will increase as the cold front proceeds
southeastward across Arkansas into the long-term forecast discussion
on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

he long term PD and new work week looks to bring a pattern change
after a brief stint of much warmer than normal temps. Aloft, mean
S/Wrly H500 flow wl be in place acrs much of the Srn US and persist
thru much of this next week, as several shortwave perturbations are
progged to maneuver thru mean longwave troughing. At the sfc, a
stalled cdfrnt oriented fm S/W to N/E, wl extend fm Cntrl TX, thru
Cntrl AR, and N/Ewrds towards the OH River Valley.

Thru the early portion of the long term, this frnt wl serve as the
focus for enhanced precip chcs, particularly over the N/Wrn half of
the FA. W/ precip covg in place, temps acrs N/Wrn to Nrn AR should
also stay much cooler relative to the remainder of the state, w/
daily highs in the mid 70s thru much of next week. The good news is,
to the warm side of this stalled frnt acrs Cntrl to Srn AR, temps wl
be trending down thru the week, w/ highs initially in the mid 80s,
and dipping down to the upper 70s to low 80s. In addition to cooler
daily highs, drier air should begin to filter into the state thru
the week, allowing for daily overnight lows to trend back to normal
values, w/ readings in the 50s bcmg common acrs Nrn AR, and lows in
the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Magnitude and covg of PoPs is progged
to decrs by Wed and thru the remainder of the PD, but daily low Chc
PoPs wl remain thru the later portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the majority of the forecast period
from early Saturday morning through early Sunday morning for all
terminals with a few brief exceptions. The exceptions will be some
patchy fog that may develop across the northern and western sites of
KBPK, KHOT, and KADF which could drop VSBY to MVFR flight category
just prior to sunrise on Saturday morning. Later on Saturday from
around noon through Saturday evening, isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across northern Arkansas and impact the
sites of KHRO and KBPK where CIGS and VSBY may drop to MVFR flight
category given an isolated shower or thunderstorm passes over the
airfield. However, any deviation from VFR flight category across all
terminals would be brief over the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  71  91  71 /  30  10  20  20
Camden AR         96  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       92  71  89  66 /  30  10  40  40
Hot Springs AR    97  73  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  96  74  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     95  73  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      96  71  93  69 /  10   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  92  70  90  68 /  30  20  30  40
Newport AR        91  71  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     95  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   97  71  93  72 /  20  10  10  10
Searcy AR         94  70  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      94  72  93  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74