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FXUS64 KLZK 162309 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
609 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Unsettled weather has continued for much of the day with overcast
skies and on and off precipitation moving across large portions of
the state. As a result, temperatures have warmed very little across
the state through the day with afternoon temperatures in northern
Arkansas struggling to get out of the 60`s. Southern Arkansas has
seen the best warming of the day with temperatures warming into the
lower 80`s. Needless to say, temperatures are well below normal for
this time of year.

This afternoon and evening rain showers will continue. While no
location will see a washout, some light rain will be seen. Expect
rain chances to finally come to an end during the overnight
hours...however patchy fog will be possible with the best chance for
heavy fog being mainly across northwest portions of the CWA.wrk

Models are in agreement that Tuesday will be a dry day except in
extreme southern Arkansas. Rain chances will linger across the
southern border of the state through much of the day on Tuesday.
Models continue to hint at an upper level ridge to build into the
region towards the start of the long term with temperatures forecast
to warm back to near normal levels or above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

90 degree weather will be back at the beginning of the extended
term, and although the 90 degree weather will give way to highs in
the 80`s after a few days, warm temperatures will prevail regardless.

The extended term beings with a narrow ridge across the central US,
built up between coastal trofs. With the ridge in place, 90 degree
weather will be back in place across the state.

By the weekend an upper low will begin to move up thru the four
corners region and lift over Missouri and into the upper midwest by
Monday. As the ridge weakens, daily highs will relax into the 80`s.

At the surface, a cold front will try to move into the northwest
part of the state over the late weekend into Monday. The models seem
content to stall out the front just outside the area, but this will
contribute to some rain chances starting on Saturday thru Monday,
primarily across the NW and northern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Scattered SHRA and some patchy DZ will remain possible this
evening...with best chances across the SRN half of the area.
Expect chances to decrease by later tonight and overnight...but
some patchy fog will also be possible. Expect CIGs/VIS to improve
throughout the day on Tue...with dominant VFR conditions expected
Tue afternoon for most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  85  61  85 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         66  85  65  89 /  40  20   0   0
Harrison AR       61  83  61  84 /  30   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    66  87  65  89 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  67  87  66  89 /  20  10   0   0
Monticello AR     67  86  66  89 /  50  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      64  86  63  89 /  20  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  62  85  61  85 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        63  84  60  84 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  86  64  87 /  40  10   0   0
Russellville AR   64  87  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  87  62  86 /  20   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      65  85  63  86 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...62