Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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711 FXUS64 KMAF 130741 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Weak ridging holds just to the west of the region and will be pushed to the east slightly. For much of the area, this means less cloud cover and temperatures several degrees higher than yesterday. Most spots will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. The Big Bend being the hottest spot reaching into the 110s. The inherited Heat Advisory will remain as is given the aforementioned temperatures. Southeast flow continues through this morning and will aid in keeping some low level moisture over western zones. Isolated storms will be possible from near the border to the north into SE NM with some agreement in current hi-res guidance. Any accumulations will be light overall. Temperatures stay above normal tonight with most only settling in the low to mid 70s. Higher elevations cooling into the 60s. The ridge weakens further as an upper low cuts across the Rockies. Better rain chances appear over the Davis Mountains and into SE NM Friday afternoon. Once again, precipitation amounts will be limited as any activity will be isolated in nature. Highs areawide reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Friday evening, lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible across western areas as a shortwave passes to the north of the region, though will generally be on a downward trend given the loss of heating. As the aforementioned shortwave translates eastward across the Texas Panhandle and into the Central Plains by Saturday morning, subsidence will once again be the rule across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Deterministic guidance and cluster analyses remain in good agreement regarding the evolution of the upper pattern, with flow aloft progged to transition to quasi-zonal on Saturday, and southwesterly on Sunday as ridging develops over the east coast and a deepening trough takes shape to the west. Beneath the western trough, a subtropical ridge of high pressure extending from west of Baja across northern Mexico and into Texas will largely keep a lid on any potential convection through the weekend and into early next week, with the exception of the Davis Mountains where a few diurnally-driven storms are possible most afternoons in the extended. As far as temperatures are concerned, given the fairly stagnant pattern, highs in the upper 90s and 100s and lows in the upper 60s and 70s can be expected each day through Tuesday, with potential prolonged Heat Advisory conditions for locations west of the Pecos River. Persistent southeasterly surface flow will maintain some semblance of low-level moisture across the area, which will keep afternoon temperatures least a few degrees cooler than they might otherwise become in this pattern, especially across the plains. Heading into midweek, guidance indicates potential for a disturbance to impinge upon South Texas, which could send additional moisture into our neck of the woods, and cool temperatures down a bit, a little closer to normal. Stay tuned. JP && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR remains through the period. Southeasterly winds continue into the morning. Gusts pick up this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 105 74 101 73 / 10 10 20 20 Dryden 100 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 74 100 73 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 98 72 94 70 / 10 10 20 20 Hobbs 101 70 97 70 / 10 10 0 20 Marfa 99 60 96 63 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 99 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 100 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 105 75 102 76 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...93