Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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503 FXUS64 KMAF 171737 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows the longwave trough that will pivot across the Four Corners and move just northwest of our area for today. Return flow under the ridge that has been stationed over the Southern Plains has pushed low level moisture into SE NM and a weak surface trough/dryline feature is backed up over far west Texas. As the upper level trough moves to the east during the day today, the surface feature will follow suit. Shower and storm chances increase this afternoon across SE NM southward across the Davis Mountains and adjacent foothills. Forecast soundings along the surface feature show long hodographs and an inverted-v shape that drive home that any strong to severe storms that do develop may contain strong to damaging wind gusts. Storms begin to develop during the mid to late afternoon and taper off during the evening after the loss of daytime heating. Areas east of the TX/NM border see storm chances diminish quickly as the thermodynamic environment is much less favorable away from the diffuse dryline to the west. Drier conditions hold for Wednesday as the aforementioned upper low departs northward. Highs for both today and on Wednesday top out above normal in the low to mid 90s for most with the exception of the mountains that stay slightly cooler. Overnight lows remain well above normal in the 60s to low 70s thanks to continued southeasterly flow. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Enjoy the heat while you can. Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast to center over Coahuila, providing perhaps the warmest day this forecast for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Under the ridge, thicknesses will be optimized, and highs should be a balmy ~ 10-12 F above normal. Meanwhile, an upper trough will make landfall on the west coast south of the Bay Area, nudging the ridge east and developing southwest flow aloft over the region. Thicknesses will begin a downward trend after Thursday, with highs following suit each day. Friday, the trough begins moving east, ejecting to the Four Corners by around 18Z Saturday. The trough is forecast to push a Pac front into the western CWA Saturday but, as early as the season is, there`s not much push behind it, and models hang it up mid-CWA Sunday. Convection will be possible along this feature, mainly over parts of Southeast New Mexico. Sunday night, return flow forms a warm front, pushing this feature back into the northwest fringes of the CWA Monday and Monday night. Even with the Pac front hanging up over the weekend, thicknesses will continue to crater, and cooler air will make its way into the region. Sunday and Monday, highs should average less than 5 F above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR VIS and CIGs at terminals aside from CNM and HOB, where showers and storms are possible from 20Z into 04Z and could result in some MVFR in blowing dust, hail, and damaging winds in the strongest storms. Showers and storms are also possible at PEQ from 05Z into 11Z, although left out mention from TAFs due to <10% PoPs at PEQ. Southeast winds expected at all terminals outside of storms, gusty at times before subsiding 05Z-12Z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 68 96 69 97 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 71 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 98 72 97 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 88 67 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 68 93 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 65 92 64 92 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 98 74 98 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...94