Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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727 FXUS64 KMAF 160353 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1053 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 We continue to monitor satellite this afternoon as Cu develops across portions of Lea County south into the Trans Pecos. Hi-res models indicate this is an area of potential convective development over the next few hours. High levels of moisture at the surface and intense afternoon heating has allowed for a conditionally unstable environment across the eastern half of the area. A couple of storms could go severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. These storms will slide east into the Permian Basin, but weak flow aloft will keep them from making it too far. A breezy, mild night is expected with rain chances diminishing before midnight. Sunday looks like another hot one with highs back near 100 or above for most locations. Will issue a Heat Advisory for the western half of the area which will likely be extended into Monday. There will be another shot at some isolated storms, though mostly confined to the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Come Monday, the upper pattern remains largely stagnant across our region with a large upper trough across the western US, a ridge across the eastern US, and a separate segment of ridging across northern Mexico and Baja. The weakness between these two areas of ridging allows an inverted trough to push into Texas mid-week steered by the eastern US ridge. While Monday/Tuesday features more relatively quiet and hot days with afternoon storms limited to the Davis Mountains, this inverted trough could bring an appreciable pattern change for the second half of the week. At the very least, this feature will bring in plenty of rich low-mid level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which should also dampen high temperatures some as well. As far as how much precipitation could result from this, the strength/location of the trough will be pivotal into how expansive rainfall could be and there remains uncertainty both model to model but also run to run. The range of possibilities could still be anywhere from some additional showers/t`storms in the Davis` to more widespread rain showers stretching into the Permian Basin. Still, the main takeaways from today`s trends for the late-week rain is that Thursday looks to bring the best chance for rain, with locations along/south of I-10 likely seeing the highest rainfall totals. With added clouds/rain chances, high temperatures will be limited into the 80s for most on Thursday/Friday, returning back into the 90s for the weekend. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 KMAF VWP shows a 35 kt LLJ in full swing tonight, which will keep winds elevated into Sunday morning. Return flow continues Sunday afternoon, gusty at times, w/forecast soundings developing a fairly widespread cu field, w/bases ~ 5-7 kft AGL. A 50+kt LLJ Sunday night will keep return flow elevated then, as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 98 75 100 75 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 101 70 105 72 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 100 75 101 75 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 101 74 105 74 / 0 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 97 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 96 69 100 70 / 0 20 10 10 Marfa 97 63 100 62 / 0 0 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 97 75 100 74 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 97 75 100 74 / 0 10 0 10 Wink 102 75 105 76 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44