Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
980 FXUS64 KMAF 142309 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 609 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Current radar is picking up some echoes in southeastern NM as well as the Big Bend. However surface observations are not picking up any rainfall so the radar echoes are likely dense tropical altostratus streaming into the area from TS Ileana in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico. The abundant, and thick, cloud cover is putting a damper on temperatures today as readings have hardly budged in the past three hours. If we can`t get rainfall, then cooler temperatures will have to do and we will enjoy what we can get. Models are showing upper level winds becoming less favorable for this tropical fetch of moisture to continue and we should see some clearing overnight and into Sunday. Less clouds tomorrow means more heating and highs should be a few degrees warmer and any rain chances should be gone. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Ensemble model analysis indicates that the forecast upper low/short wave trough over the western CONUS will progress slowly east northeastward. An upper level ridge will remain over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico through much of next week. Confidence is high (> 80th percentile) that surface temperatures, especially highs, will be unseasonably warm through Thursday, but a change is in the air for next weekend. During much of the work week, highs ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to 102 to 107 at Rio Grande Village are forecast. Overnight lows will be warm as well, with lows in the mid 50s at higher elevations to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. In fact, with a modicum of moisture in the air, lows may flirt with record warmth at KMAF! The upper low/short wave trough (it`s hard to determine at this time what form this trough will take) will approach the region Friday, and with it comes an increase in precipitation chances, mainly across southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, in closer proximity to an approaching weak cold front and better upper-level lift. QPF appears to be on the light side, with at best a half inch of precipitation likely over the northeastern Basin Friday evening. A return to more seasonable temperatures appears likely next weekend. -bc && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period. Light SHRA near HOB has dissipated and will not affect the terminal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 67 95 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 72 95 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 95 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 87 66 85 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 67 93 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 88 60 88 / 10 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 70 95 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 95 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...10