815
FXUS64 KMAF 190534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Things will slowly begin to change over the coming 24-36 hours as
Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to influence our region. In
the meantime, a very similar setup to yesterday is expected once
again this afternoon. Temperatures reach well into the upper 90s
and low 100s for most with the low-level thermal ridge parked over
the western half of the area, though a touch further west than
yesterday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Davis
Mountains through the Big Bend as a result of the continued
excessive heat across the aforementioned area. The large majority
of the region is expected to remain dry in terms of rainfall with
the exception of terrain-induced convection over the Davis
Mountains and near the LLano Estacado across our northern border
with Lubbock`s area this afternoon and evening. While no rain is
expected, continued strong return flow brings more and more
moisture towards west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Everything
quickly dissipates after sunset. Temperatures tonight remain mild
with a potent low-level jet maintaining mixing through much of the
night. Most can expect temperatures to remain well into the 70s
by sunrise tomorrow.

Things begin to get interesting as we move into Wednesday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One may at this time be a Tropical
Storm, making landfall south of Brownsville. As this happens, our
region becomes situated under broad difluent flow between the
trough to the west and our tropical system to our southeast.
While, this doesn`t look to aide the lower elevations much, the
combination of this broad ascent, upslope flow, and daytime
heating should bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the western higher elevations. On the bright side, temperatures
cool a good 5-10 degrees areawide as heights begin to fall in
response to the approaching tropical system. Wednesday night is
expected to see rainfall chances quickly ramp up across the
region. As the tropical system continues to pass to the south, a
piece of vorticity pinches off and ejects northeastward over the
southern Great Plains. In response to this, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely, especially south of I-10, where they
are closer to the center of the tropical system. These showers and
thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producers with very
high precipitable water values and an overall tropical airmass in
place. Flash flooding may develop if consistent banding can occur
but this remains uncertain at this juncture. Nonetheless, cooler
temperatures and a wetter forecast is a very welcomed sight to
behold.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A tropical system currently over the western Gulf of Mexico will
move inland over northern Mexico Thursday, with accompanying
moisture leading to increasing rain chances for our area. PWATs
near 4 standard deviations above normal and 4th highest on record
at 1.99 inches (as of 21Z GFS/NAM) remain on target, with dew
point temperatures in the 60s everywhere, as well as warm rain
processes in cloud layers of depth up to 4kft all indicating
potential for heavy showers over most of the area on Thursday into
Thursday night, especially since a warm rain cloud bearing layer
of that depth is not common this far inland for this time of year.
Forecast rainfall for much of the Permian Basin has decreased in
last few runs of the NBM, while forecast remains on track for
greatest rainfall somewhere over Terrell County. Greatest rainfall
is likely southwest and west of the Pecos River, where rainfall
amounts between 1 and 2 inches from the eastern Stockton Plateau
into Terrell County are indicated for the NBM, as well as ENS,
GEFS, and GEPS ensembles, with lesser rain amounts than the NBM
and below 1.00 inches in ENS, GEFS, and GEPS ensembles farther
north over the most of the Permian Basin and Lea County, given
farther proximity from the tropical system for those regions. WPC
has highlighted much of the southern Permian Basin and West Texas
southwest of the Pecos River and southeast of Culberson County in
a slight risk for flash flooding. Ensembles along with NBM
indicate rainfall of at least 1.00 inches will stretch from
Terrell County the Reeves County plains and western Eddy County.
With abundant low clouds and rain Thursday, highs will struggle to
reach the 80s in Midland-Odessa on Thursday, with mainly 70s and
80s, even down south near the Rio Grande where highs may not reach
the 90s. Strong winds are also possible over western regions of
the Guadalupes down into the western Davis Mountains and Presidio
Valley and southern Brewster County, but we should stay below wind
advisory criteria. By Friday morning, the last main batch of rain
should be over westernmost regions and the SE NM plains, with
rain chances decreasing from east to west on Friday.

A warming trend sets in after Thursday as upper ridging over the
northeast US again builds southwest. Highs Friday in the 80s can
be expected, with 90s making a an appearance along the Rio Grande
and easternmost Permian Basin, and lows in the mid 60s to 70s.
Highs in the 90s making an appearance for most of the area aside
from higher elevations west and southwest of the Pecos River and
most of Lea County Saturday, and aside from higher elevations on
Sunday. By beginning of next week, high temperatures will again
feature widespread 90s and triple digits, with lows only falling
into the 70s and above, mid to upper 60s over the usual cooler
spots of northern Lea County and higher elevations of the Marfa
Plateau and Trans Pecos. With subsidence from ridging, any storm
chances will once again be limited to western regions and arising
from heating of elevated terrain over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR continues into the morning with the exception of MAF which will
see MVFR CIGs move in around 12z. Clouds will lift by mid morning
with mid level clouds moving during the day. Gusty southeast winds
persist for the TAF period. SHRA/TS possible starting tonight, but
not included in issuance at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  69  83  70 /  10  30  50  30
Carlsbad                 94  69  79  68 /  20  40  70  70
Dryden                   90  69  80  70 /  10  70  90  80
Fort Stockton            92  69  80  69 /  10  40  80  70
Guadalupe Pass           88  64  71  65 /  20  50  80  80
Hobbs                    91  66  79  66 /  10  30  60  60
Marfa                    91  61  74  60 /  20  50  90  80
Midland Intl Airport     90  69  80  70 /   0  30  60  50
Odessa                   90  70  80  70 /   0  30  60  50
Wink                     95  72  83  71 /   0  30  70  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93