051
FXUS64 KMAF 301720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The stagnant pattern we`ve observed for the last several days
persists through the beginning of the week with persistent upper
ridging spanning from northern Mexico through the Gulf Coast. High
temperatures both this afternoon and Monday afternoon are nearly
identical, topping out in the mid to upper 90s for most with triple
digits limited to the Pecos/Rio Grande River valleys and the
western Low Rolling Plains. A modest LLJ this morning (and again
tonight) keeps breezy winds in place and holds low temperatures into
the mid to upper 70s. A few diurnally-driven storms are expected in
and around the Davis Mountains through the Guadalupe Mountains this
afternoon. Synoptic subsidence ticks up a bit tomorrow with the
ridge becoming stronger and more centered over the ArkLaTex. With
this, no storm chances are expected at any point on Monday.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The beginning through middle part of the new week remains much the
same as its been. Mid-level ridging remains dominant as its center
meanders around the southern Great Plains to Lower Mississippi
Valley. Temperatures remain hot each afternoon as a result with
scorching 90s and 100s for the vast majority of locations. The low-
level jet keeps it warm through the night as temperatures struggle
to cool into the 70s each morning. Rain chances during this period
will be confined to the western higher elevations where diurnal
convection remains possible. On the bright side, the signs of a much
needed change are anticipated by the end of the week into next
weekend. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good
agreement that the broad mid-level ridge across the CONUS begins to
weaken across the southern Great Plains, becoming split across the
Southwest and Southeast U.S. This provides northwesterly upper-level
flow across the area, which should allow for troughs or weak
disturbances to sink southeast into portions of the southern Great
Plains. In doing so, temperatures should cool more into the upper
80s to mid 90s for most with more substantial and widespread rain
chances across the entire area. While the best rain chances should
remain across the favored higher elevations, at least a low (10-40%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms may materialize across the
Permian basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Let`s just hope we can catch a
break from the hot and dry weather, at least for a short while.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. TS will form in the
mountains but should remain west of all terminals. Modest
southeasterly winds also continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  74  99  75 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   96  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    97  71  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    94  62  93  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    101  76 101  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10