959
FXUS64 KMAF 170844
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
344 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows the longwave trough that will
pivot across the Four Corners and move just northwest of our area
for today. Return flow under the ridge that has been stationed over
the Southern Plains has pushed low level moisture into SE NM and a
weak surface trough/dryline feature is backed up over far west
Texas. As the upper level trough moves to the east during the day
today, the surface feature will follow suit. Shower and storm
chances increase this afternoon across SE NM southward across the
Davis Mountains and adjacent foothills. Forecast soundings along the
surface feature show long hodographs and an inverted-v shape that
drive home that any strong to severe storms that do develop may
contain strong to damaging wind gusts. Storms begin to develop
during the mid to late afternoon and taper off during the evening
after the loss of daytime heating. Areas east of the TX/NM border
see storm chances diminish quickly as the thermodynamic environment
is much less favorable away from the diffuse dryline to the west.

Drier conditions hold for Wednesday as the aforementioned upper low
departs northward. Highs for both today and on Wednesday top out
above normal in the low to mid 90s for most with the exception of
the mountains that stay slightly cooler. Overnight lows remain well
above normal in the 60s to low 70s thanks to continued southeasterly
flow.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Enjoy the heat while you can.  Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast
to center over Coahuila, providing perhaps the warmest day this
forecast for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Under the ridge,
thicknesses will be optimized, and highs should be a balmy ~ 10-12 F
above normal.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will make landfall on the west coast
south of the Bay Area, nudging the ridge east and developing
southwest flow aloft over the region.  Thicknesses will begin a
downward trend after Thursday, with highs following suit each day.
Friday, the trough begins moving east, ejecting to the Four Corners
by around 18Z Saturday.  The trough is forecast to push a Pac front
into the western CWA Saturday but, as early as the season is,
there`s not much push behind it, and models hang it up mid-CWA
Sunday.  Convection will be possible along this feature, mainly over
parts of Southeast New Mexico.  Sunday night, return flow forms a
warm front, pushing this feature back into the northwest fringes of
the CWA Monday and Monday night.

Even with the Pac front hanging up over the weekend, thicknesses
will continue to crater, and cooler air will make its way into the
region.  Sunday and Monday, highs should average less than 5 F above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR continues through the period. Winds remain southeasterly. Gusts
consistently return during the day tomorrow. Iso TS possible late in
the TAF period, but not yet included due to low confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  68  96  69 /  20  20   0   0
Dryden                   93  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            94  71  98  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  66  88  67 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                    90  68  93  69 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    89  65  92  64 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     92  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   91  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     95  73  98  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...93