398
FXUS64 KMAF 171913
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VIS and IR SAT show mostly clear skies with clouds over the Davis
Mountains into SE NM plains streaming north in return flow, with the
clouds indicating low level moisture being advected along a weak
surface trough/dryline over far W TX. An upper level trough located
over the Great Basin will develop farther to the northeast over the
northern Rockies. With closer proximity of the trough, shear will
increase this afternoon for western portions of the area. Model
soundings show long hodographs and an inverted-v shape, indicating
that the strongest storms that develop could very well contain
damaging winds. SPC indicates marginal risk farther to the northwest
of the CWA, so while strong storms are possible, widespread severe
weather is not expected. CAMs indicate storms developing this
afternoon and continuing into tonight as they move east. East of the
TX/NM border, storm chances decrease significantly, especially given
the less favorable thermodynamic environment and loss of daytime
heating by the time storms move farther east. Highs today rise into
the 90s, 80s over higher elevations, and a triple digits right along
the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Tonight lows remain above average,
only falling into the 70s and above for most of the Permian Basin
and Rio Grande and into the 60s elsewhere. Scattered high clouds
and southeasterly surface winds will both limit radiational
cooling and keep dew point temperatures in the 60s, 50s
westernmost regions.

Wednesday, the trough will be positioned farther northward, with
decreased shear leading to less favorable conditions for storm
updraft organization and maintenance. However, FV3 and WRF are
showing storms moving northeast from the Stockton Plateau into
Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon, with FV3 showing wider coverage
and greater intensity of discrete storms. The SPC has a marginal
risk well to the northeast of the CWA over the TX PH on Wednesday,
but it is not of the question that strong storms will again be
possible tomorrow afternoon and evening over portions of the area.
Highs will be similar to Tuesday, with lows Wednesday night slightly
warmer than tonight as a result of longer duration of southeast
winds advecting in warm, humid air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The long term forecast remains on track as discussed over the last
several days. The large western CONUS trough is expected to
transition into a more pronounced shortwave that begins to translate
east and across the central CONUS by the weekend. Thursday serves as
a brief lull before this weather system arrives. Temperatures will
be relatively hot and well into the 90s for most with low 100s
through portions of the river valleys under sunny skies.

As the shortwave trough enters the Four Corners region, lee
troughing develops ahead of it across the high plains. This sets up
a mild start to Friday with moist, return flow keeping temperatures
in the upper 60s and low 70s for many. On the plus side, the
approaching trough should allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms
across western portions of the area by afternoon, where proximity to
the trough and orographic features provide the greatest likelihood
of convective development. Temperatures remain nearly identical
Friday afternoon to Thursday afternoon.

Heights begin to fall as we head into Saturday as the shortwave
trough begins to move across the Colorado/New Mexico border. With
closer proximity to the trough, much of the area can expect at least
a slight chance of thunderstorms alongside slightly cooler
temperatures. Once the trough ejects across the Great Plains on
Sunday, a cold front is set to move through the region.
Unfortunately, drier continental air with this front should end
thunderstorm chances. On the bright side, temperatures are expected
to return to near normal by Sunday and even slightly below normal to
start the new week.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs at terminals aside from CNM and HOB, where
showers and storms are possible from 20Z into 04Z and could result
in some MVFR in blowing dust, hail, and damaging winds in the
strongest storms. Showers and storms are also possible at PEQ from
05Z into 11Z, although left out mention from TAFs due to <10%
PoPs at PEQ. Southeast winds expected at all terminals outside of
storms, gusty at times before subsiding 05Z-12Z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 67  95  69  96 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  96  71  97 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  88  67  89 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  94  68  94 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    65  91  64  92 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     71  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  94  73  95 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     73  98  74  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...94