466
FXUS64 KMAF 141002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

WV imagery shows weak ridging this morning over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  T.S. Ileana has entered the Gulf of
California, w/cirrus bands already overspreading the CWA.  This,
combined with a 35+kt LLJ, will keep overnight mins well above
normal.

For those who like cooler weather, however, these clouds will
decrease thicknesses a bit today, shaving a couple of degrees off of
yesterday`s highs.  CAMs now suggest isolated afternoon convection
from the Guadalupes to the Big Bend.

Tonight, a weaker, 30+kt LLJ is forecast, but skies will begin
clearing, promoting more efficient radiational cooling and yielding
overnight lows ~ 7-9 F above normal...still 2-3 F cooler than this
morning`s.

Sunday, an upper trough makes landfall on the west coast in the
PacNW, nudging the ridge east and diminishing thicknesses further.
This will leave afternoon highs around 10 F above normal, but a
couple of degrees cooler than this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to hold court over West Texas and
southeast New Mexico to start the coming week. That means above
average temperatures, in the 90s for most, and mainly dry conditions
will prevail. Weaknesses in the ridge to the west might allow for a
few showers to develop over the high terrain to the west, but any
activity that develops will likely be isolated in nature. The
pattern looks to shift towards the end of the week as a longwave
trough digs over the Southwest US. Better, but still meager, rain
chances are apparent on long range guidance. However, uncertainty
with the trajectory of the upper low means the forecast is likely to
change in the coming days.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a high-based cu field by mid-afternoon,
w/plenty of higher cloud from T.S. Ileana to the southwest. No
convection anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  69  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 97  67  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   96  72  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           89  66  88  66 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    95  66  93  67 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    89  60  90  61 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     95  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   95  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    100  69  98  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44