Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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103 FXUS64 KMAF 250754 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Look for another hot day on tap for the area, but with isolated storms possible over more of SE NM than what we have the past few days. The center of the upper ridge will shift west today allowing for slightly better moisture to make its way in to the region along with less subsidence. Isolated showers and storms should develop as usual across the Davis Mountains with more storms developing across portions of eastern NM during peak heating. Given weak northerly flow around the ridge storm will have a southern trajectory. A storm or two could make into northern portions of the Permian Basin, but the best chance for any measurable rain will stay over NM. Temperatures will continue an upward trend today with highs reaching 100 for all but the higher terrain above 5K ft. After a mild night, we will likely repeat everything Wednesday. The only difference may be better coverage of storms across the west from Artesia south to the Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Upper ridging flattens across the South as a strong trough enters the northern Rockies late week. Unfortunately, the hot temperatues will remain with widespread 100s for highs through Friday. With the ridge being weaker, a daily shot at showers and storms will continue across the west, but capping will keep it dry east of the Pecos River. The center of the upper ridge shifts east allowing for less subsidence this weekend and possibly a front entering the TX PH. Expect a continued shot for scattered storms across the higher terrain. Storms could form along the front to our north this weekend and move south, but large uncertainty exists as to how far south this activity will make it. Will keep the best chance of storms both Saturday and Sunday across the northern Permian Basin and SE NM, closer to the front. With better moisture in place, we will shave a few degrees off highs with most locations back into the 90s. Drier and hotter conditions return early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR through the period with southeast winds around 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 77 103 77 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 104 78 104 77 / 20 20 20 20 Dryden 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 102 76 101 74 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 95 75 95 72 / 20 30 40 30 Hobbs 101 74 101 74 / 10 20 10 10 Marfa 97 68 96 65 / 30 20 50 20 Midland Intl Airport 100 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 100 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 105 79 104 77 / 0 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29