Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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327 FXUS64 KMAF 212320 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Quiescent conditions are on tap for west Texas and southeastern New Mexico through Saturday night. We will see some lingering showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the higher terrain of the Big Bend and the Delaware/Guadalupe/Sacramento ranges this evening, with rain chances ending before midnight. Temperatures overnight will be modulated by clouds and moisture, with lows ranging from the mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. Tomorrow begins a stretch of warmer and drier conditions that will persist well into the extended. Should see some isolated to scattered diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain again Saturday afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to near 103 at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend National Park. Most areas will be in the lower to mid 90s. Saturday night will be a repeat of tonight`s conditions, with shower and thunderstorm activity dying off by mid evening across the southern Sacramentos. Gusty southeasterly winds this evening will slacken some overnight before picking up again during the mid morning hours Saturday. All in all, a perfect late June weekend if you`re not wanting some badly-needed rain. -bc && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 As remnants of Tropical Depression Alberto continue moving off to the west over northern MX, ridging over northeastern US build WSW into the area this weekend. Model solutions diverge next week regarding upper air pattern. The ENS ensemble depicts ridging over east-central NM flattening out. This occurs as a trough over Pac NW digs southeast while a low pressure system moving east over the Canadian Prairies drags a weak cold front southeast over the Great Plains, with a weak cold front or dryline moving southeast over SE NM and W Texas, and northwesterly flow occurring as a low pressure system develops over the High Plains of the OK and TX panhandles. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles show subtropical ridging over east-central NM continuing to hold with little flattening of the ridge, as the trough over the Pac NW passes well to the north and any fronts remain closer to the US-Canada border. ENS solution yields cooler highs in the 90s after Wednesday in Midland-Odessa with only triple digits over the Reeves County plains, western Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau and near the Rio Grande. GEFS and GEPS solution maintains highs in triple digits for Midland- Odessa, most places in the area aside from 90s in the higher elevations, for Wednesday through Friday next week. Under ridging and clearing skies, highs Sunday warm back above normal, in the 90s for most, 80s in higher elevations and Trans Pecos, and triple digits over Reeves County plains, easternmost Permian Basin, and along Rio Grande. This warming trend only continues into Tuesday, with triple digit readings developing along Pecos River into SE NM plains Monday, and most of the Permian Basin, SE NM plains, and Reeves County plains into Stockton Plateau Tuesday, while highs in the 90s are present over higher elevations and southeastern Permian Basin, and triple digits also develop in basins of Culberson County and near the Rio Grande. Wednesday into Friday likely sees "cooler" temperatures than Tuesday and Wednesday, but still warmer than Monday unless ENS solution pans out. Lows Sunday night will be warmer than average under light southeast flow and mix of clouds, 60s for most with 70s along the Pecos River, near the Rio Grande, and over northeastern Permian Basin. Lows Monday night through Friday night 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average only fall into 70s and above, 60s for usual cooler spots of higher elevations, Marfa Plateau, and lower Trans Pecos, as continued southeast flow advects higher dew point temperatures in the 60s and above during the nighttime hours for all but westernmost regions. Showers and storms will be limited to heating of elevated terrain over Sacramento Foothills and Davis Mountains each afternoon until Wednesday. Additional rain chances could develop over northernmost Permian Basin and SE NM plains after next Wednesday, if a weak cold front/dryline does move southeast through this region next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions and southeast winds are expected at all terminals through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 96 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 69 94 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 89 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 93 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 87 68 91 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 67 93 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 59 90 59 92 / 20 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 70 93 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 70 93 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 97 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...91