Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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959 FXUS64 KMAF 181859 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 159 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Things will slowly begin to change over the coming 24-36 hours as Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to influence our region. In the meantime, a very similar setup to yesterday is expected once again this afternoon. Temperatures reach well into the upper 90s and low 100s for most with the low-level thermal ridge parked over the western half of the area, though a touch further west than yesterday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Davis Mountains through the Big Bend as a result of the continued excessive heat across the aforementioned area. The large majority of the region is expected to remain dry in terms of rainfall with the exception of terrain-induced convection over the Davis Mountains and near the LLano Estacado across our northern border with Lubbock`s area this afternoon and evening. While no rain is expected, continued strong return flow brings more and more moisture towards west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Everything quickly dissipates after sunset. Temperatures tonight remain mild with a potent low-level jet maintaining mixing through much of the night. Most can expect temperatures to remain well into the 70s by sunrise tomorrow. Things begin to get interesting as we move into Wednesday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One may at this time be a Tropical Storm, making landfall south of Brownsville. As this happens, our region becomes situated under broad difluent flow between the trough to the west and our tropical system to our southeast. While, this doesn`t look to aide the lower elevations much, the combination of this broad ascent, upslope flow, and daytime heating should bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms to the western higher elevations. On the bright side, temperatures cool a good 5-10 degrees areawide as heights begin to fall in response to the approaching tropical system. Wednesday night is expected to see rainfall chances quickly ramp up across the region. As the tropical system continues to pass to the south, a piece of vorticity pinches off and ejects northeastward over the southern Great Plains. In response to this, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially south of I-10, where they are closer to the center of the tropical system. These showers and thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producers with very high precipitable water values and an overall tropical airmass in place. Flash flooding may develop if consistent banding can occur but this remains uncertain at this juncture. Nonetheless, cooler temperatures and a wetter forecast is a very welcomed sight to behold. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A tropical system currently over the western Gulf of Mexico will move inland over northern Mexico Thursday, with accompanying moisture leading to increasing rain chances for our area. PWATs near 4 standard deviations above normal and 4th highest on record at 1.99 inches (as of 21Z GFS/NAM) remain on target, with dew point temperatures in the 60s everywhere, as well as warm rain processes in cloud layers of depth up to 4kft all indicating potential for heavy showers over most of the area on Thursday into Thursday night, especially since a warm rain cloud bearing layer of that depth is not common this far inland for this time of year. Forecast rainfall for much of the Permian Basin has decreased in last few runs of the NBM, while forecast remains on track for greatest rainfall somewhere over Terrell County. Greatest rainfall is likely southwest and west of the Pecos River, where rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches from the eastern Stockton Plateau into Terrell County are indicated for the NBM, as well as ENS, GEFS, and GEPS ensembles, with lesser rain amounts than the NBM and below 1.00 inches in ENS, GEFS, and GEPS ensembles farther north over the most of the Permian Basin and Lea County, given farther proximity from the tropical system for those regions. WPC has highlighted much of the southern Permian Basin and West Texas southwest of the Pecos River and southeast of Culberson County in a slight risk for flash flooding. Ensembles along with NBM indicate rainfall of at least 1.00 inches will stretch from Terrell County the Reeves County plains and western Eddy County. With abundant low clouds and rain Thursday, highs will struggle to reach the 80s in Midland-Odessa on Thursday, with mainly 70s and 80s, even down south near the Rio Grande where highs may not reach the 90s. Strong winds are also possible over western regions of the Guadalupes down into the western Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley and southern Brewster County, but we should stay below wind advisory criteria. By Friday morning, the last main batch of rain should be over westernmost regions and the SE NM plains, with rain chances decreasing from east to west on Friday. A warming trend sets in after Thursday as upper ridging over the northeast US again builds southwest. Highs Friday in the 80s can be expected, with 90s making a an appearance along the Rio Grande and easternmost Permian Basin, and lows in the mid 60s to 70s. Highs in the 90s making an appearance for most of the area aside from higher elevations west and southwest of the Pecos River and most of Lea County Saturday, and aside from higher elevations on Sunday. By beginning of next week, high temperatures will again feature widespread 90s and triple digits, with lows only falling into the 70s and above, mid to upper 60s over the usual cooler spots of northern Lea County and higher elevations of the Marfa Plateau and Trans Pecos. With subsidence from ridging, any storm chances will once again be limited to western regions and arising from heating of elevated terrain over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Strong and occasionally gusty southeast winds will continue at all terminals through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 91 69 83 / 0 10 30 50 Carlsbad 73 94 69 79 / 0 20 40 70 Dryden 73 90 69 80 / 0 10 70 90 Fort Stockton 72 92 69 80 / 10 10 40 80 Guadalupe Pass 68 88 64 71 / 0 20 50 80 Hobbs 70 91 66 79 / 10 10 30 60 Marfa 62 91 61 74 / 10 20 50 90 Midland Intl Airport 73 90 69 80 / 0 0 30 60 Odessa 73 90 70 80 / 0 0 30 60 Wink 76 95 72 83 / 10 0 30 70 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...91