986
FXUS64 KMAF 170358
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1058 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Similar to yesterday we are seeing Cu development across the Davis
Mountains where daytime heating meets upslope, moist flow. A few of
these storms could go severe once again as storm travel to the
south. Further north, a weak dryline sits across the western Permian
Basin while another boundary left over from storms last night lays
across northeast portions of the region. Both of these boundaries
could be a focus for storm development as we go through the
afternoon. Elsewhere, the hot temperatures continue with many
locations near or above 100 currently. The Heat Advisory continues
for areas along and west of the Pecos River. Very similar conditions
are expected Monday so will extend the advisory for the same
locations another day. Isolated storms are possible once again in
the Davis Mountains Monday afternoon.

-Rick

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Not much has changed with the forecast heading in to mid and late
week. Models agree with tropical moisture increasing across the area
Wednesday and beyond as a tropical wave or possibly something more
organized makes landfall along the Texas coast. The big question is
how strong will the upper ridge over the central and eastern U.S.
be? If this ridge is stronger and extends more into our area,
most of the rain will stay mainly south of I-10 or into Mexico. If
the ridge is weaker, much of the area could see rain, some of
which could be heavy. Either way, higher moisture levels will mean
much cooler temperatures. Highs will fall back into the 80s or
even 70s late week! Stay tuned!

-Rick

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. KMAF VWP shows a 35 kt
LLJ in full swing tonight, which will keep winds elevated through
the morning. Return flow continues Monday afternoon, gusty at
times, w/forecast soundings developing a fairly widespread cu
field, w/bases ~ 7-10 kft AGL. A 55+kt LLJ Monday night will keep
return flow elevated then, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                107  72 105  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  102  75 100  75 /   0  20   0   0
Fort Stockton           104  74 103  74 /   0  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           97  71  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    99  71 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    99  64  99  63 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport    100  74  98  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   99  75  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    104  76 106  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Monday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...44