Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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493 FXUS64 KMAF 181120 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 620 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A few showers persist over SE NM Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, but will gradually rain themselves out over the next couple hours. Enough rain to wet the ground and most likely dry off before sunrise is all that is expected this morning. SImilar to yesterday, a diffuse dryline will sharpen up over the Caprock southward towards the Davis Mountains and mix slightly to the east through the day. With upper level ridging still in place over Central Texas, it will be tough for storms to develop once again. Isolated storms will develop during the mid to late afternoon, but location remains uncertain and the current suite of CAMs reflect that with highest chances staying over the Davis Mountains and the foothills to the east in Pecos and Reeves counties thanks to the topography of the area. Storms look less likely across the Permian Basin, but the chance is non-zero. Any storms that do form will be able to access ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE, ~30kts effective shear, and a decently tall dry layer near the surface. All that to say damaging winds will be possible in the few strong to severe storms that develop. Into tonight, storms will gradually decay with the loss of daytime heating and the dryline retreats back to the west as the LLJ kicks in and brings in low level moisture from the SE. Temperatures today tick up about a degree or two over yesterday, yielding highs in the mid 90s nearly areawide with the exception of the cooler mountains. Lows remain about 10 degrees above average as return flow delivers more warm, moist air during the night. The trend up in temperatures continues on Thursday as the upper level ridge amplifies over Texas and another degree or two can be added on to what today will see. With a stronger ridge, drier conditions can be expected for the region. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 For those who like cooler weather, it`s on the way. Friday, an upper trough is forecast to be over the junction of AZ/CA/NV by 00Z Saturday, nudging the ridge over Texas farther east and starting a precipitous decline in thicknesses into next week under southwest flow aloft. Friday should be the warmest day of the extended as highs top out ~ 10 F above normal. Large-scale ascent will combine w/impulses moving through southwest flow aloft for a slight chance of convection over Southeast New Mexico Friday afternoon/night. Saturday, the trough ejects northeast, arriving just east of the Four Corners by 00Z Sunday. A Pac front will enter the higher terrain from the west, but models stall this feature late afternoon along the Texas/New Mexico border, which will also serve as a focus for convection mainly during the afternoon. Like yesterday`s setup, deep-layer shear ahead of the approaching trough will increase to 35- 45 kts. Mid-level lapse rates supportive of large hail will once again be confined north and west of the CWA, but dcapes in excess of 1000 J/kg and dry subcloud layers/inverted-v soundings suggest a damaging wind threat. Highs should be a couple of degrees cooler than Friday. Sunday, the upper trough pushes into the Central Plains, flattening the ridge along the Texas/Louisiana coasts. This will push the Pac front a little farther into the CWA, and orient it more SW-NE across the CWA, resulting in a slight chance of convection over the lower Trans Pecos. Thicknesses continue to diminish, with highs remaining in the 80s for much of the CWA. Sunday night, long-range models bring a cold front into the area, but confidence in this is somewhat low attm. Yesterday`s GFS had it arriving at KMAF 12Z Sunday, and the latest run puts it more like 18Z Monday. This uncertainty is illustrated quite nicely in LREF 75th-25th temp spreads Monday afternoon. To be fair, late-summer cold fronts are most always capricious, so this is just the nature of the game at this point. That said, NBM is hard to argue with, although it too will most certainly change as the front comes into hi-res territory. Confidence will remain low on timing until the NAM gets ahold of it. That said, Monday now looks to be the coolest day this forecast, with highs within a couple of degrees of normal, which puts all but the Rio Grande Valley under 90 F Monday afternoon. Isolated convection is possible invof the Davis Mountains. Tuesday, temperatures attempt to recover under zonal flow aloft, but not by much. Long-range models are all over the place by that time. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR continues through the period. Winds remain southerly to southeasterly through the day. Gusts becoming more consistent during the afternoon. Iso TS possible mid to late afternoon particularly near PEW/INK/HOB, but timing and location are uncertain. Mention will be made in later issuances or with amendments. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 95 73 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 96 69 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 71 98 70 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 88 68 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 94 68 94 68 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 92 64 92 63 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 95 72 95 71 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 99 74 99 73 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...93