Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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703 FXUS64 KMAF 011109 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 609 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Convection is only now winding down as radar shows the last storm dissipating near Big Spring. Outflow from this convection has spread across the entire Permian Basin bringing in a more stable and cool airmass. However this may not do much good for preventing severe weather this afternoon as models show moisture pushing west against the mountains ahead of the cooler air. The moist air will outrun the cooler and more stable air allowing for afternoon heating and an approaching disturbance will destabilize the atmosphere causing severe storms to develop in the mountains and progress east. The storms should begin weakening with sunset which should occur around the time they reach the Pecos River valley and diminish in strength as they push east into the central and eastern Permian Basin. So the main threat today will be in areas that have not had much severe weather, or even rainfall, so far this year. Strong winds and hail will be the main threats and our western CWA is under a SLIGHT risk by SPC. Zonal flow pushes dry air east and the dryline sets up in the western Permian Basin on Sunday. Highest rain chances will be in the eastern Basin where a few storms could again become severe though coverage should be less than that seen the past couple of days. Warmer temperatures are expected behind the dryline tomorrow though highs should be near normal for this time of year. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Zonal flow is expected the early part of next week and this time of year that means very hot and dry weather. Highs Monday through Wednesday are expected to top off above the century mark for many locations, with upper 90s seen elsewhere. A western U.S. ridge amplifies late in the week which may allow for a weak cold front to sneak into West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Not only should we see a break in the hot temperatures but there may also be a return of rain chances as the front provides moisture and a source of surface convergence to help create lift. Hennig && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. TS may affect some of the western TAF sites after 21Z and even if not at the terminal, will affect local flying. Winds will occasionally gust outside of the storms. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 92 68 93 72 / 10 30 20 10 Carlsbad 94 64 101 67 / 30 20 10 0 Dryden 93 71 97 74 / 20 30 10 0 Fort Stockton 94 68 100 70 / 40 30 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 87 64 92 67 / 30 20 0 0 Hobbs 91 63 97 63 / 20 20 10 0 Marfa 94 57 96 58 / 40 30 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 91 68 94 71 / 20 30 10 0 Odessa 92 69 95 72 / 20 30 10 0 Wink 96 69 102 68 / 30 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10