747
FXUS64 KMAF 251738
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Look for another hot day on tap for the area, but with isolated
storms possible over more of SE NM than what we have the past few
days. The center of the upper ridge will shift west today allowing
for slightly better moisture to make its way in to the region along
with less subsidence. Isolated showers and storms should develop as
usual across the Davis Mountains with more storms developing across
portions of eastern NM during peak heating. Given weak northerly
flow around the ridge storm will have a southern trajectory. A storm
or two could make into northern portions of the Permian Basin, but
the best chance for any measurable rain will stay over NM.
Temperatures will continue an upward trend today with highs reaching
100 for all but the higher terrain above 5K ft. After a mild night,
we will likely repeat everything Wednesday. The only difference may
be better coverage of storms across the west from Artesia south to
the Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper ridging flattens across the South as a strong trough enters
the northern Rockies late week. Unfortunately, the hot
temperatures will remain with widespread 100s for highs through
Friday. With the ridge being weaker, a daily shot at showers and
storms will continue across the west, but capping will keep it dry
east of the Pecos River. The center of the upper ridge shifts
east allowing for less subsidence this weekend and possibly a
front entering the TX PH. Expect a continued shot for scattered
storms across the higher terrain. Storms could form along the
front to our north this weekend and move south, but large
uncertainty exists as to how far south this activity will make it.
Will keep the best chance of storms both Saturday and Sunday
across the northern Permian Basin and SE NM, closer to the front.
With better moisture in place, we will shave a few degrees off
highs with most locations back into the 90s. Drier and hotter
conditions return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds are somewhat gusty at
MAF throughout the afternoon, but gusts pick up this evening at
all Texas terminals due to the LLJ. The gusty southeasterly winds
diminish between 09-12z Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77 103  77 103 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 78 104  77 101 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                   76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76 101  74 101 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  95  72  93 /  30  40  30  20
Hobbs                    74 101  74 100 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                    68  96  65  96 /  20  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     76 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     79 104  77 104 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16