417
FXUS64 KMAF 161823
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
123 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough making landfall on the
west coast just north of the Bay Area.  This will nudge the ridge
over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the east today,
developing southwest flow aloft over the region.  Despite this, hi-
res models suggest highs this afternoon will be within a degree or
so of where they were yesterday...around 5 F above normal.  CAMs
also develop isolated afternoon convection invof the Davis
Mountains.

Tonight, a 30+kt LLJ develops as return flow increases, surging
boundary layer moisture into the area.  This, in addition to
increasing high cloud ahead of the west coast trough, will keep
overnight lows 8-10 F above normal.

Tuesday, the west coast trough ejects to the Idaho/Wyoming border by
00Z Wednesday. Thicknesses increase a little, adding 2-3 F to this
afternoon`s highs.  A dryline is forecast to develop west of the
CWA, and large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will combine
w/upslope flow to open a window for isolated afternoon convection
over Southeast New Mexico and areas to the south.  W/this synoptic
setup, deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts is forecast develop over much
of the area...more than has been present in some time.  Hail doesn`t
look to be a concern, as mid-level lapse rates are rather tepid, the
steeper rates to the northwest of the CWA.  However, increased
dcapes and dry subcloud layers/inverted-v soundings suggest a few
cells could approach severe levels due to damaging outflows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Heading into Tuesday evening, storms from that afternoon gradually
taper off during the night with a loss of daytime heating. As the
upper low moves off to the north, the upper ridge originally in
place amplifies over the southern Great Plains. Temperatures move up
into the 90s areawide for Wednesday and Thursday with the Pecos
River Valley reaching back towards the century mark. Lows stay well
above normal in the 60s to low 70s during the same time. Late in the
week and into the next weekend, another upper low nears the region
and the ridge flattens and shifts to the east. Temperatures dip
closer to normal, 80s to 90F during the day and 60s at night, with
increasing chances for rain. Plenty of moving parts in regards to
how the upper level pattern plays out, so much will change over the
next few days.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Southeast winds will be gusty at terminals from 18Z today into
02Z-04Z Tuesday, after which winds will decrease at terminals
before increasing again at HOB, INK, and MAF by 12Z-14Z Tuesday.
We cannot rule out a stray shower or storm this evening over the
Stockton Plateau into the Upper Trans Pecos, but chances of
showers or storms occurring at any terminals are low and so were
not mentioned in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  69  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 90  68  92  67 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                   91  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            91  68  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           83  66  85  65 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                    89  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    87  61  89  65 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     91  69  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   90  69  92  73 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     92  69  95  73 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94