879
FXUS64 KMAF 151716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Ileana roughly over southwest
Chihuahua this morning, slowly moving east-northeast.  As such,
mid/high cloud from this feature has cleared out of Southeast New
Mexico, and is clearing West Texas from west to east.

This cloud cover suppressed highs yesterday, and although thicknesses
will decrease a little today, abundant insolation will allow highs ~
2-4 F warmer than yesterday.  CAMs suggest isolated convection from
the remnants of Ileana may cross the river in the Big Bend Area this
afternoon...but not by far.

Tonight, despite a LLJ, mostly clear skies will yield lows similar
to this morning`s, if not a degree cooler due to less cloud cover.

Monday, an upper trough digging through the southwest CONUS nudges
the ridge east, decreasing thicknesses slightly.  This will combine
w/increasing high cloud from the approaching trough to shave a
couple of degrees off this afternoon`s highs.  Isolated convection
from Ileana is still possible along the river during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Little change to the long term forecast with this update. Medium to
long term ensemble guidance keeps an upper level ridge parked over
the southern Great Plains through the middle of the coming week.
This will keep temperatures unseasonably warm in the 90s during the
day and in the 60s to 70s at night (average high/low at KMAF is
88/65F for mid September). The big question will be the evolution of
an upper level low moving over the Western US and subsequently into
the Plains later this week. In general, a weakness or shift eastward
in the aforementioned ridge may lead to near average temperatures
and at least low (10-30%) rain chances over portions of the area.
However, the exact track of the low may augment where and how much
rain may or may not fall across the region. Stay tuned!

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions and light occasionally gusty winds will continue
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  66  91  69 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   92  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            93  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  64  83  65 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                    91  65  89  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    86  59  86  62 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     93  68  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   93  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     95  68  93  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10