201
ACUS11 KWNS 251926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251926
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...southwestern Virginia and the western Carolinas to
central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251926Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms -- a few of which reaching severe
levels -- are expected near and east of the higher terrain of the
Appalachians.  All-hazards severe risk -- including a brief tornado
or two -- will be possible with the strongest of these storms, but
coverage of the more substantial convection may preclude the need
for WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows high cloudiness
expanding across the pre-frontal warm sector at this time, though
until now, ample heating has resulted in modest destabilization
(around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) near and just ahead of the
slowly advancing cold front.  Convection continues to gradually
increase across the area, with one particularly organized storm now
affecting the Habersham/Rabun County Georgia area, and -- soon --
portions of Oconee County South Carolina.

The somewhat modest warm-sector CAPE is being partially offset -- in
terms of potential for robust convection -- by relatively strong
southwesterlies at mid levels southeast/east of the upper low near
the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.  This flow, atop
low-level southeasterlies, is providing shear sufficient for both
mid-level and -- to some degree -- low-level rotation.  Though
overall coverage of the more robust storms is expected to remain
limited, the area bears watching given the favorable kinematic
environment.  While current expectations are that a WW will not be
required, we will continue to monitor convective evolution and
possible/additional destabilization this afternoon.

..Goss/Guyer.. 09/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32858455 35038307 37168089 36938007 35928020 33098306
            32678379 32858455