Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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592 ACUS11 KWNS 281550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281549 LAZ000-TXZ000-281745- Mesoscale Discussion 1039 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...central into southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281549Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms may develop along residual outflow across central into southeast Texas from late morning into the afternoon. Severe/damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Convection is starting to develop near/just behind outflow across central Texas. While outflow may continue to sag southward, a very moist airmass remains in place with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Strong heating and midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km within this moist environment is resulting in strong destabilization (MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg). Any storms that develop within this airmass will likely become severe, posing a risk of large hail and severe gusts. If clustering occurs, a line of severe storms may develop southeast from the Edwards Plateau toward the Upper Texas Coast later this afternoon. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the region soon. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30519909 30769888 31059830 31229733 31109402 30839358 30209367 29939375 29609436 29359492 29309566 29319726 29359789 29439833 29509868 29629891 29959906 30189910 30519909