Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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869 ACUS11 KWNS 242100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242059 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-242300- Mesoscale Discussion 1395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242059Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening over the Central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain in an environment characterized by large surface T/Td spreads, deeply-mixed inverted-v boundary layer profiles, and 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear in the southern portion of the MD area, increasing to 40-45 kts further north in the Black Hills. These storms are expected to continue eastward into the High Plains, where buoyancy increases slightly with eastward extent. Given the dry environment and weak vertical shear, a few damaging wind gusts from dry downdrafts are possible with ongoing convection, and additional development may be possible with interacting thunderstorm outflows. Further north in the Black Hills, convective development is less certain, but better combinations of buoyancy and shear indicate potential for an isolated hail and damaging wind threat if a storm develops out of the current cu field. Watch issuance is not likely at this time, but convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 44890339 44860289 44580245 44260226 43880219 43320214 42890207 42500192 41960142 41650117 41250090 40860062 40490042 40090026 39600017 39350027 39070043 38870060 38730085 38680119 38670161 38670181 38830205 38980218 39260237 39470253 39680266 39730271 40000320 40260353 40760405 41200450 41600478 42000499 42300513 42800530 43460551 43910558 44270551 44540514 44710477 44800434 44830385 44890339