738
ACUS11 KWNS 170138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170138
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-170345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...Northeast CO...southeast WY...NE Panhandle into
northwest NE...southwest/south-central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 170138Z - 170345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later
this evening, with large hail and localized severe gusts expected to
be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection is gradually strengthening east
of Denver. The short-term evolution of this convection is uncertain,
but it moves northeastward into an increasingly unstable environment
across northeast CO, some further intensification is possible.
Deep-layer shear is sufficient to support some storm organization,
and some threat for hail and localized severe gusts could evolve if
ongoing convection is able to mature.

Later this evening, an increasing low-level jet (which is already
noted on the KGLD VWP) will support the northward advance of
stronger elevated buoyancy and the potential for elevated storm
development across the NE Panhandle vicinity into
southwest/south-central SD. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and
sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for organized
convection, with a threat of large hail. The strongest storms within
this regime could pose a conditional threat of very large hail,
especially with any cells that are able to remain semi-discrete.
Localized severe wind gusts will also be possible.

Timing and the most favored corridor of the primary severe threat
remain somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance will become
increasingly probable across parts of the region by 9-10 PM MDT
(10-11 PM CDT).

..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40610208 39960318 39930391 40040425 40490448 41060463
            42500427 43180365 43430338 43960084 44009938 43569863
            42299986 40610208