Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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840 ACUS11 KWNS 241641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241640 NCZ000-VAZ000-241815- Mesoscale Discussion 1393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241640Z - 241815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina in a hot/unstable airmass featuring temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This has yielded 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and an uncapped atmosphere. Initial storms have shown occasional supercellular characteristics with some multicell clustering also apparent. This storm organization can likely be attributed to the 30-35 knot westerly flow aloft apparent on the AKQ VWP. Expect additional storms to form along and ahead of the cold front as it sags south across eastern North Carolina. The modest shear combined with strong instability will permit a continued damaging wind threat through the afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to cover this threat. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34957919 36057830 37237640 37257573 36907573 36367562 36017540 35617538 35157548 34927608 34547647 34517665 34617683 34227768 34957919