Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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898 ACUS11 KWNS 191643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191643 TXZ000-191915- Mesoscale Discussion 1332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of the TX Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191643Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic waterspouts may move onshore as a brief tornado before likely weakening inland. Overall threat may remain relatively lower-end in the near-term, but will continue to be monitored for a narrow tornado watch. DISCUSSION...Several offshore circulations have been noted late this morning but with a consistent weakening trend as convection has approached the coast. As of 1635Z, near-term waterspout threat appears roughly centered from the Galveston to Corpus Christi vicinity, where 0-1 km shear of 25-35 kts persists in HGX/CRP VWP data. Visible satellite and radar trends suggest a 30-90 min relative lull in convection may occur along the coast between the ongoing band of cells and another band of cells 60-80 nm offshore. This break may become necessary for some increase in surface-based destabilization along the coast as modified 12Z CRP/BRO soundings suggest it remains limited. If this occurs, an increase in brief tornado potential may be realized this afternoon. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 29209503 28699529 28229636 27279717 26679729 26749770 27959729 28869618 29209503