632
ACUS11 KWNS 162059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162059
MNZ000-NDZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota and far
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 162059Z - 162300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few hail reports, and perhaps a tornado
or two are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of
eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. A watch may be
needed in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...With a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across
the northern CONUS, storms are developing near a remnant boundary
across portions of northern North Dakota this afternoon. South of
this boundary, solar heating has resulted in air mass recovery in
the wake of an MCS this morning. Dewpoints across central North
Dakota are in the upper 60s and low 70s with temperatures generally
near 80, resulting in appreciable CAPE. Additionally, some shear is
present, with 10-15 kts 0-1 km shear from the KBIS VWP and 30-40 kts
of effective bulk shear per mesoanalysis.

With initial discrete convection, some severe hail is expected given
deep CAPE profiles and modest low-level shear. Additionally, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out, given an increasing low-level
jet this evening. However, the window for such a tornado threat may
be short before convection grows upscale due to merging cold pools.
From there, a damaging wind threat should become more dominant
through the evening hours.

..Supinie/Gleason.. 09/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49109754 49039681 48739677 48189700 47389805 46959977
            47030117 47400170 47960158 48380098 49089921 49109754