599
ACUS11 KWNS 220013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220013
TXZ000-NMZ000-220315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680...

Valid 220013Z - 220315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and scattered severe gusts
continues from far eastern NM Into parts of the TX Panhandle and
South Plains this evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis show a cold front extending from
west-central OK into east-central NM, with a dryline punching
northeastward across central NM. Gusty southeast winds persist
across the warm sector over much of the South Plains and into
southeast NM, with scattered strong to severe cells both north and
south of the cold front.

Around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE exists within the instability axis, as
indicated on the 00Z MAF. Winds in the lowest few km are mostly
unidirectional, before veering to southwesterly around 700 mb.
Hodographs are therefore primarily straight line, with elongation in
the mid to upper levels. While low-level shear is stronger along the
cold front, much of this will remain ineffective due to the cooler
air mass. However, the South Plains portion of the front is a bit
more favorably oriented for storms to potentially interact for a
longer duration before becoming elevated, and a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out. Otherwise, hail appears to be the primary risk this
evening.

..Jewell.. 09/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32190387 32940368 33690364 34470409 34690452 35190547
            35670523 35750420 35430237 35240148 34930115 34080093
            33340144 32260234 31850310 31910362 32190387