Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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796 ACUS11 KWNS 231743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231742 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-231945- Mesoscale Discussion 1383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley into southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231742Z - 231945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will gradually increase through the afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary concern. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front draped across the OH River Valley, a corridor of upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and pockets of heating will contribute to moderate surface-based instability -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates sampled by 12Z observed soundings. As modest midlevel height falls overspread the region, surface-based thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the cold front. Storms should slowly increase in intensity as they track eastward and intercept the destabilizing warm/moist sector. Given ample deep-layer westerly flow/shear (around 35-kt effective shear) roughly perpendicular to the front, a mix of loosely organized clusters and transient supercells are expected. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the enhanced low/midlevel flow will favor locally damaging gusts as the primary concern, especially with any localized upscale growth. However, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained semi-discrete supercells. A watch (potentially two separate watches) will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL... ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 40268200 41078095 41647995 42107886 42557771 42607687 42437624 42137602 41737607 40937729 40347822 39857898 39158017 38068234 37938362 38138434 38578444 39018438 39378380 39738286 40268200