![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
858 ACUS11 KWNS 222021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222020 MIZ000-222115- Mesoscale Discussion 1374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...north-central Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222020Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado and/or localized 50-65 mph gust will focus in a mesoscale area northwest of Saginaw Bay over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the southern end of a band of low-topped convection moving across northern Lower MI. Lightning was recently observed in the past 15 minutes as the storm moves east along a west-east oriented stationary front. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70-72 deg F range. Ample deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will seemingly support a continuation and maintenance of this storm as it moves east. An isolated risk for a 50-65 mph gust and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this storm. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... LAT...LON 44188438 44218367 44108352 43988361 43908374 43958446 44088450 44188438