Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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774 ACUS11 KWNS 222246 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222246 MOZ000-IAZ000-230045- Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...North-central Missouri into south-central and southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222246Z - 230045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may occur late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail are the main threats. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Convective showers have been increasing along the cold front and within weak convergence bands ahead of the front in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. With the primary shortwave trough farther to the the north, forcing for ascent will be more nebulous. That said, storm coverage is not certain late this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s F and the airmass is quite moist (low 70s F dewpoints). MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear of around 35 kts will be sufficient for organized strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat with isolated marginally severe hail possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible late this afternoon, but issuance will depend on convective coverage. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41769289 41509207 40839178 40119216 39759260 39619362 39969442 40549469 40639471 41549375 41769289