Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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229 ACUS11 KWNS 162043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162042 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-162245- Mesoscale Discussion 1291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...northern Illinois and adjacent southeastern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424... Valid 162042Z - 162245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424 continues. SUMMARY...There appears increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts as an organizing cluster of storms accelerates into the Greater Chicago and Milwaukee metro areas through 5-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Based on 20Z surface observations, the convectively-generated cold pool remains modest in strength. However, a notable intensification of convection along its leading edge appears underway, and this seems likely to be sustained east-northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity through 22-23Z, aided by easterly low-level inflow of unstable air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Boundary-layer mixing has lowered surface dew points into the 60s F, but lapse rates have become rather steep with temperatures rising through the lower/mid 90s F. With some further increase in temperature differential across the gust front, and strengthening rear inflow, it appears that the forward propagation of the organizing cluster may undergo acceleration toward the Greater Chicago and, perhaps, Greater Milwaukee metro areas through 22-23Z, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41478742 41018848 40978915 41038940 41418926 41958925 42338947 42908868 42738758 42058689 41478742