563
ACUS11 KWNS 231923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231922
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-232015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Areas affected...Far Southwest KS...Eastern TX/OK
Panhandles...Western OK...TX Big Country...Southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 231922Z - 232015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated along the dryline from southwest Kansas into southwest
Texas. Supercells capable of very large hail up to 2 to 3" and
strong gusts are possible. One or more watches will likely be needed
across portions of the area to address this severe potential.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a dryline from far
southwestern KS southward through the eastern TX and OK Panhandles,
TX Big County, and southwest TX. Visible satellite imagery shows
some building cumulus in the vicinity of this dryline, with the most
notable clusters currently in the eastern OK, the northeast TX
Panhandle, and in southwest TX (about 20-30 miles east of BGS).

Airmass to the east of this dryline is very warm and moist, with
temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints ranging from the
upper 60s/low 70s across southwest TX to the low 60s across eastern
OK Panhandle and far southwest KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates exist
atop these surface conditions, supporting very strong buoyancy.
Recent mesoanalysis estimates around 3000 J/kg along much of the
dryline, with lower values in the eastern OK Panhandle and southwest
KS.

Stronger low-level convergence exists from southwest KS into the
southeast TX Panhandle, with a low-amplitude shortwave trough
evident in water vapor imagery approaching this region as well. Less
low-level convergence is anticipated farther south, but the airmass
is also more moist, with lower convective inhibition and less
influence from dry-air entrainment. These factors are expected to
support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm initiation along
the dryline with in the next hour or so. Supercells capable of very
large hail up to 2 to 3" will likely be the primary risk, but strong
gusts are possible as well. The tornado threat will likely be
limited by weak low-level shear, although not zero given the
expected supercellular mode. One or more watches will likely be
needed across portions of the area to address this severe potential.

..Mosier/Hart.. 05/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   31790126 32680118 34730085 35880074 37140103 36869944
            32769972 31860031 31790126