605
ACUS11 KWNS 222226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222225
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 446...

Valid 222225Z - 230000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues.

SUMMARY...Southwestern Wisconsin will see a locally greater risk for
a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the warm front
may eventually grow upscale later this afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have generally struggled to intensify,
particularly those away from the surface low/warm front. The 18Z
observed DVN sounding showed very poor mid-level lapse rates which
are likely contributing to these convective trends. Still, a couple
of discrete storms in northeastern Iowa and far southwestern
Wisconsin have shown at least weak low-level rotation at times.
These storms are moving into an area where surface winds are
slightly more backed in southwestern Wisconsin. Should these storms
maintain their intensity, they would pose a locally greater tornado
risk over the next 1-2 hours.

Storms along the warm front could also pose some risk for a tornado,
though storm coverage is such that destructive interference may
mitigate any higher potential. This activity may form a more
organized cold pool and begin to push southeastward with time. This
scenario has support from several CAMs. Damaging winds would be the
main threat with this more linear activity.

..Wendt.. 06/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43269228 43469132 43298997 43008936 42588923 42009051
            41869136 42029198 42559260 42849273 43269228