Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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045 ACUS11 KWNS 191611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191610 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-191815- Mesoscale Discussion 1331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NY into New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191610Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic, localized downbursts with gusts from 50-60 mph along with small hail of 0.5-1.0 inch in diameter will be possible with pulse-type thunderstorms through this afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across parts of eastern NY into VT, with increasingly agitated Cu downstream into NH and western ME. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should occur through the afternoon amid a moderate buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, driven by 71-74 F surface dew points in lower elevations. Deep-layer shear is weak per the CXX VWP data and is expected to remain so, especially with eastern extent in New England. Slightly greater mid to upper flow upstream over the Lower Great Lakes, per the 12Z BUF sounding, may support weakly organized clustering by peak heating. But slow-moving, pulse-type storms should largely dominate. Primary threat should be localized downbursts with strong gusts capable of producing sporadic tree damage. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42007348 42987507 44657409 45107373 45817031 45606941 45026949 44177051 42897213 42007348